Category Archives: Economy

NC lost thousands of jobs in June, Labor force participation rate plummeted 3.8 percent since Obama took White House in January 2009, Reduced unemployment benefits and labor force dropouts lower unemployment rate

NC lost thousands of jobs in June, Labor force participation rate plummeted 3.8 percent since Obama took White House in January 2009, Reduced unemployment benefits and labor force dropouts lower unemployment rate

“Nearly half of U.S. companies are reluctant to hire full-time employees because of the ACA. One in five firms indicates they are likely to hire fewer employees, and another one in 10 may lay off current employees in response to the law.

Other firms will shift toward part-time workers. More than 40 percent of CFOs say their companies will consider switching some jobs to less than 30 hours per week or targeting part-time workers for future employment.”…Duke University Fuqua School of Business December 11, 2013

“Over the last six months, of the net job creation, 97 percent of that is part-time work,”…Keith Hall, former BLS chief

“11.4%: What the U.S. unemployment rate would be if labor force participation were back to January 2008 levels.” …James Pethokoukis, American Enterprise Institute, June 2013

 

 

NC lost thousands of jobs in June.

The big story is that the NC labor force participation rate plummeted 3.8 percent since Obama took the White House in January 2009.

From Triangle Business Journal July 18, 2014.

“N.C. economy sheds thousands of jobs in June”

“North Carolina lost more than 8,500 jobs in June, wiping out job gains experienced since March. The net job loss was attributable largely to job losses in the government sector.

The unemployment rate of 6.4 percent was unchanged from May to June, though that has to do with how the rate is artificially measured. A more accurate depiction of the jobs picture is to look at total jobs.”
“The state measures unemployment in two ways, one through a survey of households, which is where the official unemployment rate comes from, and one from a survey of employers, typically referred to as “nonfarm employment.” This nonfarm measure excludes workers in general government, teachers, private households, nonprofit organizations and individual or corporate farms, a measure that makes up roughly 77 percent of the total gross domestic product, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

By that measure, the state lost an estimated 5,800 jobs from May to June, though it still had 74,800 more jobs than in June of last year.
Going by the household survey reflects a job loss of 8,577, but an unchanged unemployment rate of 6.4 percent. Since last year, the rate had been steadily declining, but looking at only the rate gives a false overall jobs picture. One of the major policies implemented by the state government was to reduce the length of time that individuals receive unemployment benefits after being laid off. This policy has had the effect of artificially reducing the unemployment rate.
By reducing benefits, the household unemployment survey technically tallies fewer people in the labor force, even if those people haven’t actually found jobs or stopped looking for work. Reducing the officially counted labor force number, even if that number is reduced artificially because of reduced unemployment benefits, will drive the unemployment rate down – artificially in North Carolina.”

Read more:

http://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/news/2014/07/18/nc-economy-sheds-thousands-of-jobs-in-june.html?page=all

 

Gallup poll reveals high inflation and struggling economy, July 13, 2014, Almost 60 percent paying more for groceries gasoline, 42 percent paying more for healthcare

Gallup poll reveals high inflation and struggling economy, July 13, 2014, Almost 60 percent paying more for groceries gasoline, 42 percent paying more for healthcare

“If you’ve got health insurance we’re going to work with you to lower your premiums by $2,500 per family per year.”…Barack Obama

“We can’t drive our SUVs and eat as much as we want and keep our homes on 72 degrees at all times… and then just expect that other countries are going to say OK”…Barack Obama

 

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”George Orwell, “1984″

 

I am certain you have been reading the horse poop about the improving economy, lower unemployment rate and low inflation.

I am also certain that informed readers and certainly frequenters of Citizen Wells have dismissed the Orwellian brainwashiong attempts.

Here is more evidence of what you already know and have experienced.

From Gallup July 11, 2014.

“Consumers Spending More, Just Not on Things They Want
Groceries, gasoline top list; leisure, travel, dining out at bottom”

“Slightly less than half of all Americans (45%) report spending more than they did a year ago, while 18% report spending less. A closer look at these numbers reveals Americans’ increased spending is on household essentials, such as groceries, gasoline, utilities, and healthcare, rather than on discretionary purchases.

The Items Americans Spend Money on, Summer 2014

At the other end of the spectrum, roughly one-third of Americans report spending less on discretionary items such as travel (38%), dining out (38%), leisure activities (31%), consumer electronics (31%), and clothing (30%). More than half of Americans say they are spending about the same for rent or mortgage, household goods, telephone, automobile expenses other than fuel, personal care products, and the Internet.

All of this suggests that the increasing cost of essential items is further constraining family budgets already hit hard by the Great Recession and still reeling from a stagnant economy. This is the first time Gallup has measured household spending in this way, so it is unclear whether the current patterns are typical, or if the results on discretionary spending are better now than during the recession. Gallup’s daily measure of consumer spending has been significantly higher the last two years than in 2009 through 2011 — although this could be partly the result of higher spending on essentials.”

“These results paint a picture of consumers straining against rising prices on daily essentials to afford summer travel, dining out, and discretionary household purchases — the kinds of purchases that ordinarily keep an economy humming. And while the two-thirds of Americans who plan to travel this summer is the highest level Gallup has measured since 2006, nearly one-third plan to spend just one night or less away from home, meaning it is not much of a vacation.

Those who do intend to travel this summer expect to spend more in all travel categories — transportation, food, lodging, and entertainment — than last year, further pressuring their already-strained budgets. Most will take their own cars despite relatively high gas prices. If there was any doubt that the U.S. economy is still struggling to get back on its feet, the results of this poll reinforce that reality. Because consumer spending is the lifeblood of a healthy economy, these findings suggest that discretionary spending still has a ways to go before it will fuel the kind of economic growth Americans have been hoping for.”

GallupSpending2014

Read more:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/172532/consumers-spending-not-things.aspx

 

Obamacare subsidy enrollees could see substantial increases in 2015, Nine state analysis, Shopping and switching plans may help, Avalere study

Obamacare subsidy enrollees could see substantial increases in 2015, Nine state analysis, Shopping and switching plans may help, Avalere study

“If you like your health care plan, you can keep your health care plan.”…Barack Obama

“If you’ve got health insurance we’re going to work with you to lower your premiums by $2,500 per family per year. We will not wait 20 years from now to do it, or 10 years from now to do it. We will do it by the end of my first term as president.”…Barack Obama

 

“Nearly half of U.S. companies are reluctant to hire full-time employees because of the ACA. One in five firms indicates they are likely to hire fewer employees, and another one in 10 may lay off current employees in response to the law.

Other firms will shift toward part-time workers. More than 40 percent of CFOs say their companies will consider switching some jobs to less than 30 hours per week or targeting part-time workers for future employment.”…Duke University Fuqua School of Business December 11, 2013

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

 

 

Obama, Valerie Jarrett, the Obama camp are good at what they specialize in, diversions.

The impact of Obamacare has been marginalized by the lack of coverage due to the diversions.

From Kaiser Health News June 26, 2014.

“Health insurance premiums for people with subsidies could increase substantially in some markets – but consumers who shop around may not end up paying more, a new report out Thursday says.

Shopping around may not be as likely, however, under proposed rules also released Thursday by the Obama administration which will automatically re-enroll the vast majority of those who are signed up for plans through the online marketplaces. Automatic re-enrollments might ease the experience, but will also make it less likely consumers will check out other options.

Consumers who choose to would still be able to shop around, the administration said. And the Avalere study shows they should.

The analysis of rates filed in nine states found that as insurers battle for a share of the individual market, some plans that were the low-priced leaders this year are not the least expensive options next year.

Because subsidies through the Affordable Care Act are tied to “benchmark” plans, which are the second lowest-cost silver-tier plans in each market, even those with subsidies could see the monthly amounts they pay change. In most of the states studied, the second lowest-cost plan is changing.”

“If you are a savvy buyer, you could pick a low-cost plan and probably avoid a significant rate increase,” said Caroline Pearson, vice president at Avalere. But those who do nothing may end up paying more.

Here’s how it works: Subsidy-eligible individuals – those who earn between about $11,480 and $45,960 – can enroll in any plan they like. But those who choose plans other than the benchmark silver plans would pay the difference in monthly premium cost, dollar for dollar.

In a hypothetical example cited by Avalere, a 40-year-old consumer who enrolled this year in a $214-a-month benchmark plan paid $58 of her own money toward the premium after the subsidy. But now her insurer plans to raise rates next year to $267 a month. Because other plans have come in lower, her plan is no longer the benchmark. That benchmark plan is now a different one, whose price is $231 a month.

Unless she switches plans, the consumer must now pay the difference. Her income has stayed the same, so her subsidy of $173 a month remains unchanged. But, because her plan is now $36 more than the benchmark plan, her monthly payment rises to $94 for the premium – unless she switches to the lower-cost plan.

Instead of narrowing, as might be expected, the range in premium prices widened from 2014 to 2015, Pearson said.”

Read more:

http://capsules.kaiserhealthnews.org/index.php/2014/06/premiums-for-many-in-the-individual-market-may-change-next-year/

 

NAR May 2014 existing home sales report, All but million dollar plus homes sales down, Wealthy propping up US housing market, Housing recovery only for the richest

NAR May 2014 existing home sales report, All but million dollar plus homes sales down, Wealthy propping up US housing market, Housing recovery only for the richest

“For now, the absence of young adults from the housing market continues to put a dent in the homeownership rate, which dropped to 64.8% in the first quarter, compared with 65.2% in the fourth quarter of 2013, according to U.S. Census statistics. The rate was as high as 69.2% in the fourth quarter of 2004. For those younger than 35, the rate has fallen noticeably faster. It slipped to 36.2% in the first quarter, from 36.8% in the fourth. The homeownership rate for this group was as high as 43.6% in the second quarter of 2004.”…Market Watch May 12, 2014

“Nearly half of U.S. companies are reluctant to hire full-time employees because of the ACA. One in five firms indicates they are likely to hire fewer employees, and another one in 10 may lay off current employees in response to the law.

Other firms will shift toward part-time workers. More than 40 percent of CFOs say their companies will consider switching some jobs to less than 30 hours per week or targeting part-time workers for future employment.”…Duke University Fuqua School of Business December 11, 2013

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

 

 

 

From the NAR Summary of May 2014 Existing Homes Sales Statistics.

NAR05-2014-summary-2014-06-23 NARmay2014

http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2014/embargoes/ehs-06-23/ehs-05-2014-summary-2014-06-23.pdf

From Zero Hedge June 23, 2014.

“Guess Who Is Propping Up The US Housing Market”
“Needless to say, what the chart showed was the symptomatic, and schizophrenic, breakdown of US housing into two camps: the housing market for the 1%, those costing $750K and above, where the bulk of transactions are mostly between non-first time buyers, and typically take place as all cash transactions, and the market for “everyone else” which continues to deteriorate.

Moments ago the NAR released its May data, which on first blush was widely lauded as bullish: the topline print came at a 4.9% increase, rising from 4.65MM to 4.89MM, above the 4.74MM expected. Great news… if only on the surface. So what happens when one drills down into the detail? As usual, we focused on the last slide of the NAR breakdown, located at the very end of the supplementary pdf for good reason, because what it shows is hardly as bullish.”
“Housing recovery? Maybe for the richest, and even they are far less exuberant about purchasing $1MM+ mansions. For everyone else, enjoy “plunging” hedonically-adjusted LCD TV prices. Everything else is, well, noise.”

Read more:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-23/guess-who-propping-us-housing-market

 

 

May jobs data euphoria over floundering ship of state, Recapturing jobs lost boast hides real problems with economy and employment, Citizen Wells warship analogy

May jobs data euphoria over floundering ship of state, Recapturing jobs lost boast hides real problems with economy and employment, Citizen Wells warship analogy

“Nearly half of U.S. companies are reluctant to hire full-time employees because of the ACA. One in five firms indicates they are likely to hire fewer employees, and another one in 10 may lay off current employees in response to the law.

Other firms will shift toward part-time workers. More than 40 percent of CFOs say their companies will consider switching some jobs to less than 30 hours per week or targeting part-time workers for future employment.”…Duke University Fuqua School of Business December 11, 2013

 

“Over the last six months, of the net job creation, 97 percent of that is part-time work,”…Keith Hall, former BLS chief

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

 

 

The low information and/or biased media has been reporting the following:

“U.S. has finally regained the jobs lost to the Great Recession”

The low information voters and many investors appear to be buying it.

A simple analogy:

A warship is struck by a torpedo.

Believing the ship to be in imminent danger of sinking, the captain orders most of the crew to abandon ship.

They are picked up.

Much to his amazement he discovers that a sand bar is preventing the ship from sinking.

The remaining crew members repair the hole and pump out the water.

The captain reports to the admiral, we have pumped out all of the water. We are ship shape.

Sounds good except that most of the crew is missing, the ship is still stuck and enemy submarines are lurking nearby.

The same with our ship of state.

We have patched the original problem but we are dead in the water.

The employment situation in this country is reaching critical mass.

We have record numbers dropping out of the labor force and record numbers relying on government assistance paid for by the remaining workers. Many of whom are working part time jobs.

Here is one small example of data not being reported by the mainstream media.

In just one month, from April to May, almost 300,000 more people wanted jobs who were not in the labor force.

Damn the torpedoes.

May jobs report June 6, 2014, Jobs added replace jobs lost in recession?, US Labor Dept BLS orwellian data, Low information voters and reporters, CNN Market Watch reports

May jobs report June 6, 2014, Jobs added replace jobs lost in recession?, US Labor Dept BLS orwellian data, Low information voters and reporters, CNN Market Watch reports

“According to shocking new numbers that were just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 20 percent of American families do not have a single person that is working. So when someone tries to tell you that the unemployment rate in the United States is about 7 percent, you should just laugh. One-fifth of the families in the entire country do not have a single member with a job. That is absolutely astonishing. How can a family survive if nobody is making any money? Well, the answer to that question is actually quite easy. There is a reason why government dependence has reached epidemic levels in the United States. Without enough jobs, tens of millions of additional Americans have been forced to reach out to the government for help. At this point, if you can believe it, the number of Americans getting money or benefits from the federal government each month exceeds the number of full-time workers in the private sector by more than 60 million.”…Zero Hedge April 29, 2014

 

“Nearly half of U.S. companies are reluctant to hire full-time employees because of the ACA. One in five firms indicates they are likely to hire fewer employees, and another one in 10 may lay off current employees in response to the law.

Other firms will shift toward part-time workers. More than 40 percent of CFOs say their companies will consider switching some jobs to less than 30 hours per week or targeting part-time workers for future employment.”…Duke University Fuqua School of Business December 11, 2013

 

“Over the last six months, of the net job creation, 97 percent of that is part-time work,”…Keith Hall, former BLS chief

 

We not only have low information voters in this country we have low information reporters.

Yesterday the big jobs news was the alleged recovery of jobs lost during the recession.

From CNN June 4, 2014.
“U.S. soon to recover all jobs lost in crisis

Set your sights on this number: 113,000.

“That’s how many jobs the U.S. economy needs to hit its break-even point, to finally recover all the jobs lost in the financial crisis.
Get ready, because we’re about to get there this Friday.

That’s when the U.S. Department of Labor will release its May jobs report, and the outlook is rosy. Economists surveyed by CNNMoney expect the U.S. economy added 200,000 jobs in May.”

Read more:

http://money.cnn.com/2014/06/04/news/economy/jobs-report-recovery/

From Market Watch June 5, 2014.

“When the Labor Department releases the data on jobs created in May, the figures are expected to show that, for the first time, the total number of jobs has surpassed the level when the U.S. entered recession in December 2007. The U.S. is just 113,000 jobs away from the previous peak reached in January 2008. Economists polled by MarketWatch expect a 210,000 gain.”

Read more:

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/capitolreport/2014/06/05/u-s-on-the-verge-of-recovering-all-the-jobs-that-were-lost-during-the-recession/

At least Market Watch added this:

“And it’s important to note the U.S. population has grown by about 12.5 million people since 2008. Not all of them will be in the work force, but if the numbers on labor-force participation of that group are similar to what’s seen nationally, that’s another 6 million positions to fill.”

And thank God some of the public is paying attention.

From the Market Watch article comments.

“Wayne H1 hour ago
Government fuzzy math.
US Population:
7/8 304.09M
11/13 316.99M

Growth of 12.9M during Obama presidency

US Labor force participation:
01/08 66.2M
04/14 62.8M

Jobs shrunk 3.4M during Obama presidency

US household income:
12/7 $55,500
6/13 $52,100

Down $3,400

The reality is that fewer people are making less money to support even more people.

 

Seamus Brown2 hours ago
Hey MW, you missed this chart:

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000

It tells the whole story, factoring in the falling participation rate.

Of course, we all know the truth is not your goal, is it?

 

Will O’My2 hours ago
@Seamus Brown
This is a good one also -

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EMRATIO

This data center has all the data for economics research, it is the Fed’s central data center.”

“Bill Johnson2 hours ago
Quick get the memo to all those extra people on food stamps that they need to cancel their benefit. They are employed again and didn’t even know it.

In the year 2000 we had 17,194,000 people on food stamps with a population of 282,162,411. In 2008 we had 28,223,000 people on food stamps. As of February of 2014 we have 46,177,144 people on food stamps. Our current population is 318,176,220 million.

This means that we went from having 6% to 14.5% of the population on food assistance in 14 years. What type of jobs are exactly being created here? What type of “progress” are we experiencing here? ARE YOU SICK AND TIRED OF IT YET!!?

Oh I know the answer, we will just keep expanding the gov’t some more. That will fix it because its obviously worked so well for us so far. Before you jump down the Democrats throats the Republicans get some of this blame too.

http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/supplemental-nutrition-assistance-program-snap

http://www.census.gov/popclock/”

 

 

May 2014 job cuts highest in 15 months, Challenger Gray and Christmas report, Plans to reduce payrolls 52961, Job cuts up 31 percent from April, Technology sector highest

May 2014 job cuts highest in 15 months, Challenger Gray and Christmas report, Plans to reduce payrolls 52961, Job cuts up 31 percent from April, Technology sector highest

“The unemployment rate for 18-to-29-year-olds was 9.1% in April, which rises to 15.5% if you include those who have given up looking for work,”
“For now, the absence of young adults from the housing market continues to put a dent in the homeownership rate,”
“For those younger than 35, the rate has fallen noticeably faster. It slipped to 36.2% in the first quarter, from 36.8% in the fourth. The home ownership rate for this group was as high as 43.6% in the second quarter of 2004.”…Market Watch May 12, 2014

 

“Nearly half of U.S. companies are reluctant to hire full-time employees because of the ACA. One in five firms indicates they are likely to hire fewer employees, and another one in 10 may lay off current employees in response to the law.

Other firms will shift toward part-time workers. More than 40 percent of CFOs say their companies will consider switching some jobs to less than 30 hours per week or targeting part-time workers for future employment.”…Duke University Fuqua School of Business December 11, 2013

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

 

 

From Challenger, Gray and Christmas June 5, 2014.
“2014 May Job Cuts: 52,961 Highest Monthly Total in 15 Months”

“Job cuts climbed to the highest level in more than a year, as US-based employers announced plans to reduce payrolls by 52,961 in May, according to the report Thursday from global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

May job cuts were up 31 percent from 40,298 announced layoffs in April. It was the second consecutive increase in monthly job cuts and the largest one-month total since February 2013, when 55,356 job cuts were recorded.

Last month’s total was 46 percent higher than the 36,398 job cuts announced in May 2013.
To date, employers have announced a total of 214,600 planned job cuts in 2014, which is 2.3 percent fewer than the 219,560 job cuts tracked in the first five months of 2013.

The heaviest downsizing in May occurred in the technology sector, where computer firms announced plans to cut payrolls by 18,799. Hewlett-Packard, which has announced several large-scale workforce reductions in recent years, revealed plans to cut as many 16,000 workers in its ongoing efforts to “reengineer the workforce to be more competitive.”

The May total for the computer industry was the largest since May 2012, when cuts reached 27,754, due primarily to another large job-cut announcement from Hewlett-Packard.”

Read more:

http://www.challengergray.com/press/press-releases/2014-may-job-cuts-52961-highest-monthly-total-15-months