Category Archives: Economy

NAR May 2014 existing home sales report, All but million dollar plus homes sales down, Wealthy propping up US housing market, Housing recovery only for the richest

NAR May 2014 existing home sales report, All but million dollar plus homes sales down, Wealthy propping up US housing market, Housing recovery only for the richest

“For now, the absence of young adults from the housing market continues to put a dent in the homeownership rate, which dropped to 64.8% in the first quarter, compared with 65.2% in the fourth quarter of 2013, according to U.S. Census statistics. The rate was as high as 69.2% in the fourth quarter of 2004. For those younger than 35, the rate has fallen noticeably faster. It slipped to 36.2% in the first quarter, from 36.8% in the fourth. The homeownership rate for this group was as high as 43.6% in the second quarter of 2004.”…Market Watch May 12, 2014

“Nearly half of U.S. companies are reluctant to hire full-time employees because of the ACA. One in five firms indicates they are likely to hire fewer employees, and another one in 10 may lay off current employees in response to the law.

Other firms will shift toward part-time workers. More than 40 percent of CFOs say their companies will consider switching some jobs to less than 30 hours per week or targeting part-time workers for future employment.”…Duke University Fuqua School of Business December 11, 2013

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

 

 

 

From the NAR Summary of May 2014 Existing Homes Sales Statistics.

NAR05-2014-summary-2014-06-23 NARmay2014

http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2014/embargoes/ehs-06-23/ehs-05-2014-summary-2014-06-23.pdf

From Zero Hedge June 23, 2014.

“Guess Who Is Propping Up The US Housing Market”
“Needless to say, what the chart showed was the symptomatic, and schizophrenic, breakdown of US housing into two camps: the housing market for the 1%, those costing $750K and above, where the bulk of transactions are mostly between non-first time buyers, and typically take place as all cash transactions, and the market for “everyone else” which continues to deteriorate.

Moments ago the NAR released its May data, which on first blush was widely lauded as bullish: the topline print came at a 4.9% increase, rising from 4.65MM to 4.89MM, above the 4.74MM expected. Great news… if only on the surface. So what happens when one drills down into the detail? As usual, we focused on the last slide of the NAR breakdown, located at the very end of the supplementary pdf for good reason, because what it shows is hardly as bullish.”
“Housing recovery? Maybe for the richest, and even they are far less exuberant about purchasing $1MM+ mansions. For everyone else, enjoy “plunging” hedonically-adjusted LCD TV prices. Everything else is, well, noise.”

Read more:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-23/guess-who-propping-us-housing-market

 

 

May jobs data euphoria over floundering ship of state, Recapturing jobs lost boast hides real problems with economy and employment, Citizen Wells warship analogy

May jobs data euphoria over floundering ship of state, Recapturing jobs lost boast hides real problems with economy and employment, Citizen Wells warship analogy

“Nearly half of U.S. companies are reluctant to hire full-time employees because of the ACA. One in five firms indicates they are likely to hire fewer employees, and another one in 10 may lay off current employees in response to the law.

Other firms will shift toward part-time workers. More than 40 percent of CFOs say their companies will consider switching some jobs to less than 30 hours per week or targeting part-time workers for future employment.”…Duke University Fuqua School of Business December 11, 2013

 

“Over the last six months, of the net job creation, 97 percent of that is part-time work,”…Keith Hall, former BLS chief

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

 

 

The low information and/or biased media has been reporting the following:

“U.S. has finally regained the jobs lost to the Great Recession”

The low information voters and many investors appear to be buying it.

A simple analogy:

A warship is struck by a torpedo.

Believing the ship to be in imminent danger of sinking, the captain orders most of the crew to abandon ship.

They are picked up.

Much to his amazement he discovers that a sand bar is preventing the ship from sinking.

The remaining crew members repair the hole and pump out the water.

The captain reports to the admiral, we have pumped out all of the water. We are ship shape.

Sounds good except that most of the crew is missing, the ship is still stuck and enemy submarines are lurking nearby.

The same with our ship of state.

We have patched the original problem but we are dead in the water.

The employment situation in this country is reaching critical mass.

We have record numbers dropping out of the labor force and record numbers relying on government assistance paid for by the remaining workers. Many of whom are working part time jobs.

Here is one small example of data not being reported by the mainstream media.

In just one month, from April to May, almost 300,000 more people wanted jobs who were not in the labor force.

Damn the torpedoes.

May jobs report June 6, 2014, Jobs added replace jobs lost in recession?, US Labor Dept BLS orwellian data, Low information voters and reporters, CNN Market Watch reports

May jobs report June 6, 2014, Jobs added replace jobs lost in recession?, US Labor Dept BLS orwellian data, Low information voters and reporters, CNN Market Watch reports

“According to shocking new numbers that were just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 20 percent of American families do not have a single person that is working. So when someone tries to tell you that the unemployment rate in the United States is about 7 percent, you should just laugh. One-fifth of the families in the entire country do not have a single member with a job. That is absolutely astonishing. How can a family survive if nobody is making any money? Well, the answer to that question is actually quite easy. There is a reason why government dependence has reached epidemic levels in the United States. Without enough jobs, tens of millions of additional Americans have been forced to reach out to the government for help. At this point, if you can believe it, the number of Americans getting money or benefits from the federal government each month exceeds the number of full-time workers in the private sector by more than 60 million.”…Zero Hedge April 29, 2014

 

“Nearly half of U.S. companies are reluctant to hire full-time employees because of the ACA. One in five firms indicates they are likely to hire fewer employees, and another one in 10 may lay off current employees in response to the law.

Other firms will shift toward part-time workers. More than 40 percent of CFOs say their companies will consider switching some jobs to less than 30 hours per week or targeting part-time workers for future employment.”…Duke University Fuqua School of Business December 11, 2013

 

“Over the last six months, of the net job creation, 97 percent of that is part-time work,”…Keith Hall, former BLS chief

 

We not only have low information voters in this country we have low information reporters.

Yesterday the big jobs news was the alleged recovery of jobs lost during the recession.

From CNN June 4, 2014.
“U.S. soon to recover all jobs lost in crisis

Set your sights on this number: 113,000.

“That’s how many jobs the U.S. economy needs to hit its break-even point, to finally recover all the jobs lost in the financial crisis.
Get ready, because we’re about to get there this Friday.

That’s when the U.S. Department of Labor will release its May jobs report, and the outlook is rosy. Economists surveyed by CNNMoney expect the U.S. economy added 200,000 jobs in May.”

Read more:

http://money.cnn.com/2014/06/04/news/economy/jobs-report-recovery/

From Market Watch June 5, 2014.

“When the Labor Department releases the data on jobs created in May, the figures are expected to show that, for the first time, the total number of jobs has surpassed the level when the U.S. entered recession in December 2007. The U.S. is just 113,000 jobs away from the previous peak reached in January 2008. Economists polled by MarketWatch expect a 210,000 gain.”

Read more:

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/capitolreport/2014/06/05/u-s-on-the-verge-of-recovering-all-the-jobs-that-were-lost-during-the-recession/

At least Market Watch added this:

“And it’s important to note the U.S. population has grown by about 12.5 million people since 2008. Not all of them will be in the work force, but if the numbers on labor-force participation of that group are similar to what’s seen nationally, that’s another 6 million positions to fill.”

And thank God some of the public is paying attention.

From the Market Watch article comments.

“Wayne H1 hour ago
Government fuzzy math.
US Population:
7/8 304.09M
11/13 316.99M

Growth of 12.9M during Obama presidency

US Labor force participation:
01/08 66.2M
04/14 62.8M

Jobs shrunk 3.4M during Obama presidency

US household income:
12/7 $55,500
6/13 $52,100

Down $3,400

The reality is that fewer people are making less money to support even more people.

 

Seamus Brown2 hours ago
Hey MW, you missed this chart:

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000

It tells the whole story, factoring in the falling participation rate.

Of course, we all know the truth is not your goal, is it?

 

Will O’My2 hours ago
@Seamus Brown
This is a good one also -

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EMRATIO

This data center has all the data for economics research, it is the Fed’s central data center.”

“Bill Johnson2 hours ago
Quick get the memo to all those extra people on food stamps that they need to cancel their benefit. They are employed again and didn’t even know it.

In the year 2000 we had 17,194,000 people on food stamps with a population of 282,162,411. In 2008 we had 28,223,000 people on food stamps. As of February of 2014 we have 46,177,144 people on food stamps. Our current population is 318,176,220 million.

This means that we went from having 6% to 14.5% of the population on food assistance in 14 years. What type of jobs are exactly being created here? What type of “progress” are we experiencing here? ARE YOU SICK AND TIRED OF IT YET!!?

Oh I know the answer, we will just keep expanding the gov’t some more. That will fix it because its obviously worked so well for us so far. Before you jump down the Democrats throats the Republicans get some of this blame too.

http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/supplemental-nutrition-assistance-program-snap

http://www.census.gov/popclock/”

 

 

May 2014 job cuts highest in 15 months, Challenger Gray and Christmas report, Plans to reduce payrolls 52961, Job cuts up 31 percent from April, Technology sector highest

May 2014 job cuts highest in 15 months, Challenger Gray and Christmas report, Plans to reduce payrolls 52961, Job cuts up 31 percent from April, Technology sector highest

“The unemployment rate for 18-to-29-year-olds was 9.1% in April, which rises to 15.5% if you include those who have given up looking for work,”
“For now, the absence of young adults from the housing market continues to put a dent in the homeownership rate,”
“For those younger than 35, the rate has fallen noticeably faster. It slipped to 36.2% in the first quarter, from 36.8% in the fourth. The home ownership rate for this group was as high as 43.6% in the second quarter of 2004.”…Market Watch May 12, 2014

 

“Nearly half of U.S. companies are reluctant to hire full-time employees because of the ACA. One in five firms indicates they are likely to hire fewer employees, and another one in 10 may lay off current employees in response to the law.

Other firms will shift toward part-time workers. More than 40 percent of CFOs say their companies will consider switching some jobs to less than 30 hours per week or targeting part-time workers for future employment.”…Duke University Fuqua School of Business December 11, 2013

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

 

 

From Challenger, Gray and Christmas June 5, 2014.
“2014 May Job Cuts: 52,961 Highest Monthly Total in 15 Months”

“Job cuts climbed to the highest level in more than a year, as US-based employers announced plans to reduce payrolls by 52,961 in May, according to the report Thursday from global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

May job cuts were up 31 percent from 40,298 announced layoffs in April. It was the second consecutive increase in monthly job cuts and the largest one-month total since February 2013, when 55,356 job cuts were recorded.

Last month’s total was 46 percent higher than the 36,398 job cuts announced in May 2013.
To date, employers have announced a total of 214,600 planned job cuts in 2014, which is 2.3 percent fewer than the 219,560 job cuts tracked in the first five months of 2013.

The heaviest downsizing in May occurred in the technology sector, where computer firms announced plans to cut payrolls by 18,799. Hewlett-Packard, which has announced several large-scale workforce reductions in recent years, revealed plans to cut as many 16,000 workers in its ongoing efforts to “reengineer the workforce to be more competitive.”

The May total for the computer industry was the largest since May 2012, when cuts reached 27,754, due primarily to another large job-cut announcement from Hewlett-Packard.”

Read more:

http://www.challengergray.com/press/press-releases/2014-may-job-cuts-52961-highest-monthly-total-15-months

 

2014 How Housing Matters Survey, Over half US adults difficulty paying mortgage or rent, MacArthur Foundation report, Renters and owners paying more than 30% of their income on housing

2014 How Housing Matters Survey, Over half US adults difficulty paying mortgage or rent, MacArthur Foundation report, Renters and owners paying more than 30% of their income on housing

“For now, the absence of young adults from the housing market continues to put a dent in the homeownership rate, which dropped to 64.8% in the first quarter, compared with 65.2% in the fourth quarter of 2013, according to U.S. Census statistics. The rate was as high as 69.2% in the fourth quarter of 2004. For those younger than 35, the rate has fallen noticeably faster. It slipped to 36.2% in the first quarter, from 36.8% in the fourth. The homeownership rate for this group was as high as 43.6% in the second quarter of 2004.”…Market Watch May 12, 2014

“Nearly half of U.S. companies are reluctant to hire full-time employees because of the ACA. One in five firms indicates they are likely to hire fewer employees, and another one in 10 may lay off current employees in response to the law.

Other firms will shift toward part-time workers. More than 40 percent of CFOs say their companies will consider switching some jobs to less than 30 hours per week or targeting part-time workers for future employment.”…Duke University Fuqua School of Business December 11, 2013

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

 

 

 

From the MacArthur Foundation June 3, 2014.

“Housing Challenges Real For Many Americans, Finds 2014 How Housing Matters Survey”

“During the past three years, over half of all U.S. adults (52%) have had to make at least one sacrifice in order to cover their rent or mortgage, according to a new survey of housing attitudes released today by MacArthur. Such sacrifices included getting an additional job, deferring saving for retirement, cutting back on health care and healthy foods, running up credit card debt, or moving to a less safe neighborhood or one with worse schools.

The How Housing Matters Survey, the second annual national survey conducted by Hart Research Associates, found that while there are some indicators that the American public’s views about the housing crisis are shifting toward the positive, large proportions of the public are not feeling the relief: seven in 10 (70%) believe we are still in the middle of the crisis or that the worst is yet to come.”

“Renters and owners paying more than 30% of their income on housing – an established benchmark of financial distress — have had to make many of these sacrifices at even higher rates. Some 62% of distressed owners and 3 in 4 distressed renters (74%) have made at least one of these tradeoffs in the past three years. Among those indicating distress in paying their rent or mortgage, 27% have stopped saving for retirement, 23% have cut back on health care, and 23% have accumulated credit card debt.

While economists and housing experts say the housing crisis is behind us, large proportions of the American people are not feeling the relief. Very high proportions of the public (70%) continue to believe that we are still in the midst of the housing crisis (51%) or that the worst is yet to come (19%). Only 25% believe “the housing crisis is pretty much over.” The public in 2014 is only slightly more optimistic than it was one year ago, when 77% believed we were still in the middle of the crisis or that the worst was yet to come. More than two in five adults (42%) believe the housing market today continues to be a serious problem.”

Read more:

http://www.macfound.org/press/press-releases/housing-challenges-real-many-americans-finds-2014-how-housing-matters-survey/

 

Part time jobs jeopardized by recent high school college graduates?, More graduates than retirees, Citizen Wells poses question, NC unemployment rates echoes Washington lies

Part time jobs jeopardized by recent high school college graduates?, More graduates than retirees, Citizen Wells poses question, NC unemployment rates echoes Washington lies

“Nearly half of U.S. companies are reluctant to hire full-time employees because of the ACA. One in five firms indicates they are likely to hire fewer employees, and another one in 10 may lay off current employees in response to the law.

Other firms will shift toward part-time workers. More than 40 percent of CFOs say their companies will consider switching some jobs to less than 30 hours per week or targeting part-time workers for future employment.”…Duke University Fuqua School of Business December 11, 2013

 “Over the last six months, of the net job creation, 97 percent of that is part-time work,”…Keith Hall, former BLS chief

“The unemployment rate for 18-to-29-year-olds was 9.1% in April, which rises to 15.5% if you include those who have given up looking for work,”
“For now, the absence of young adults from the housing market continues to put a dent in the homeownership rate,”
“For those younger than 35, the rate has fallen noticeably faster. It slipped to 36.2% in the first quarter, from 36.8% in the fourth. The home ownership rate for this group was as high as 43.6% in the second quarter of 2004.”…Market Watch May 12, 2014

 

 

It sickens me to hear ads on TV touting the lower unemployment rate in NC and praising the McCrory administration for creating jobs.

This is what Obama and the folks in Washington have been doing for years.

The same reason that the unemployment rate has dropped applies to NC that does Washington but even more so.

The labor force has plummeted in NC and nationally.

Citizen Wells has diligently tried to keep you informed as to the real unemployment situation.

The number of people entering the work force each year versus those exiting has been explained.

I have been giving this some thought and have not seen it reported.

I pose this question:

Of all the folks graduating from high school and college and ready to enter the full time labor force, how many will be forced to keep their part time jobs?

Remember that not enough jobs are being created.

Also remember that not all of those ready to retire will be able to do so.

Even if every person eligible for retirement were to do so, there are far less of these people than those entering the labor force.

If many graduates keep their part time jobs, how does this impact current students and the large number of adults who depend on one or more part time jobs?

Why is this not being reported?

Wells

Obama economy devastates young and housing markets, Under 35 home ownership plummets from 43.6 percent to 36.2, Unemployment rate 9.1 to 15.5 percent for 18 to 29 year olds, Student loan debt

Obama economy devastates young and housing markets, Under 35 home ownership plummets from 43.6 percent to 36.2, Unemployment rate 9.1 to 15.5 percent for 18 to 29 year olds, Student loan debt

“11.4%: What the U.S. unemployment rate would be if labor force participation were back to January 2008 levels.” …James Pethokoukis, American Enterprise Institute, June 2013

“Over the last six months, of the net job creation, 97 percent of that is part-time work,”…Keith Hall, former BLS chief

“Nearly half of U.S. companies are reluctant to hire full-time employees because of the ACA. One in five firms indicates they are likely to hire fewer employees, and another one in 10 may lay off current employees in response to the law.

Other firms will shift toward part-time workers. More than 40 percent of CFOs say their companies will consider switching some jobs to less than 30 hours per week or targeting part-time workers for future employment.”…Duke University Fuqua School of Business December 11, 2013

 

 

 

Citizen Wells recently presented the impact on blacks of the Obama economy.

Another demographic that supported Obama, young people, has also been devastated by the Obama economy and the subsequent impact on the housing market has affected everyone.

From Market Watch May 13, 2014.

“There was an 8% drop in existing home sales in Greensboro-High Point, N.C., after a 2% rise in the fourth quarter, RealtyTrac found. “There’s still a lot of uncertainty about the economy,” says Tommy Camp, president and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Yost & Little Realty. “Some buyers say, ‘We’ve got a job, but we don’t know how secure that is.’” A slowdown in household formation has also had a negative impact on the housing market, he says; 18- to 34-year-olds account for more than half of missing households — that is, Americans who would be owning or renting a home now if prerecession economic trends had continued.”

Read more:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/7-places-where-property-prices-are-falling-2014-05-13?dist=beforebell

From Market Watch May 12, 2014.

“For now, the absence of young adults from the housing market continues to put a dent in the homeownership rate, which dropped to 64.8% in the first quarter, compared with 65.2% in the fourth quarter of 2013, according to U.S. Census statistics. The rate was as high as 69.2% in the fourth quarter of 2004. For those younger than 35, the rate has fallen noticeably faster. It slipped to 36.2% in the first quarter, from 36.8% in the fourth. The homeownership rate for this group was as high as 43.6% in the second quarter of 2004.

“The [25 to 35] age cohort…probably has had the hardest time recovering from the Great Recession,” said Rick Sharga, executive vice president of Auction.com, an online real estate marketplace. “For the time being, we’re likely to see a higher percentage of households formed being rental households,” and overall homeownership rates are likely to continue to drop somewhat—perhaps even down to 62%—before bottoming out and climbing back up, he added.

While some industry watchers have suggested a shift in attitudes away from Homeownership, Sharga and others say it’s too soon to know whether people truly have a waning interest in owning homes. But one thing’s for sure: Young people have plenty of hurdles to becoming homeowners.”
“The unemployment rate for 18-to-29-year-olds was 9.1% in April, which rises to 15.5% if you include those who have given up looking for work, according to Generation Opportunity, a national, nonpartisan youth advocacy organization. The unemployment rate was 6.3% in April for all ages.

Forget that without a job it’s just about impossible to get a mortgage. (It’s also hard to rent: Twenty-nine percent of adults younger than 35 live with their parents, according to Gallup poll results released earlier this year.) A slow start to earnings also means a slow start to saving.

“The majority of younger renters report having insufficient assets to cover a 5% down payment plus closing costs on a typical starter home,” Shahdad wrote.”

“In 2012, 1.3 million students who graduated from four-year colleges (or 71%) had student loan debt, up from 1.1 million in 2008 and 900,000 in 2004, according to the Institute for College Access & Success, a nonprofit independent research and policy organization. Graduating seniors with student loans had average debt levels of $29,400 in 2012, up 25% from $23,450 in 2008.

And new mortgage regulations, set into motion by the Dodd-Frank Act, require that borrowers have no more than a 43% debt-to-income ratio (with debt encompassing monthly housing costs and debt payments, including those on student loans). That ceiling may also restrict first-time buyers, some say.”

Read more:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-millennials-are-hurting-the-real-estate-recovery-2014-05-12