Category Archives: Economy

Jobless claims of 331k shows labor market improvement?, Market Watch claims, Challenger Gray & Christmas January job cuts surge, ADP Jan job creation plunges, Labor force plummets

Jobless claims of 331k shows labor market improvement?, Market Watch claims, Challenger Gray & Christmas January job cuts surge, ADP Jan job creation plunges, Labor force plummets

“11.4%: What the U.S. unemployment rate would be if labor force participation were back to January 2008 levels.” …James Pethokoukis, American Enterprise Institute, June 2013

“Nearly half of U.S. companies are reluctant to hire full-time employees because of the ACA. One in five firms indicates they are likely to hire fewer employees, and another one in 10 may lay off current employees in response to the law.

Other firms will shift toward part-time workers. More than 40 percent of CFOs say their companies will consider switching some jobs to less than 30 hours per week or targeting part-time workers for future employment.”…Duke University Fuqua School of Business December 11, 2013

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

 

 

 

Is the primary function of Market Watch to keep people throwing money into the financial markets, prop up Obama or both?

From Market Watch February 6, 2014.

“Jobless claims show labor-market improvement”

“The number of people who applied to receive unemployment benefits in the last week of January fell by 20,000, reversing the increase from the week before and signaling that the U.S. labor market continues to gradually improve.

Initial jobless claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 331,000 in the seven-days ended Feb. 1 from a revised 351,000 in the prior week, the Labor Department said Thursday. Claims from two weeks ago were 3,000 higher than previously reported.

Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected claims to total 337,000.”

Read more:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-drop-20000-to-331000-2014-02-06?link=MW_home_latest_news

From the US Labor Dept. February 6, 2014.

“In the week ending February 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 331,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 351,000. The 4-week moving average was 334,000, an increase of 250 from the previous week’s revised average of 333,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.3 percent for the week ending January 25, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending January 25 was 2,964,000, an increase of 15,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 2,949,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,985,500, an increase of 25,750 from the preceding week’s revised average of 2,959,750.”

Read more:

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm

From Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. February 6, 2014.

“FOR RELEASE AT 7:30 A.M. ET, FEBRUARY 6, 2014

Job Cuts Surge 47% to Kick Off 2014

EMPLOYERS PLAN 45,107 JOB CUTS; RETAILERS LEAD PACK AS HOLIDAY SALES DISAPPOINT

CHICAGO, February 6, 2014 – After falling to a 13-year low in December, monthly job cuts surged nearly 50 percent to kick off 2014, as U.S.-based employers announced plans to reduce their payrolls by 45,107 in January, according to the latest report on monthly job cuts released Thursday by global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

The 45,107 job cuts last month were 47 percent higher than a December total of 30,623, which was the lowest one-month total since 17,241 planned layoffs were announced in June 2000. January job cuts were up 12 percent from the same month a year ago, when 40,430 job cuts were recorded.

The heaviest downsizing activity occurred in retail, where poor earnings led to a wave of job cut announcements from several national chains, including Macy’s, Sam’s Club, JC Penney, Sears, Best Buy and Target. Overall, retailers announced 11,394 job cuts in January; a 71 percent increase from the 6,676 retail cuts tracked in January 2013. Last month’s retail cuts were the heaviest for the sector since last March, when 16,445 planned layoffs were announced.
“Holiday sales gains were relatively weak and many retailers achieved the gains by slashing prices on their products, which adversely impacted their year-end earnings. The post-holiday job-letting in the sector was inevitable,” said John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
“Retail employment will, in fact, fall further than the announced job cuts indicate. Starting in January, retailers started shedding the tens of thousands of temporary seasonal workers hired to help handle the holiday rush. The announced job cuts, on the other hand, will impact full-time, permanent workers in the stores and at the corporate offices of these struggling chains,” he added.”

Read more:

http://www.challengergray.com/press/press-releases

From Zero Hedge February 5 2014.

“ADP Plunges In January To 175K; Biggest Miss Since August; December Revised Lower: “Cold, Storms” Blamed”

“Earlier today, we predicted with absolute accuracy what today’s joke of an ADP print would be:

And sure enough, the January ADP print missed as we expected, printing at 175K vs the expected 185K, while the December 238K was revised lower to 227K, confirming that ADP is nothing but an NDP trend follower and an absolutely worthless and meaningless data point that does nothing to add relevant data to the economic picture.

For those who care, this was the biggest miss since August and the largest monthly drop since August 2012, and the weakest print since August as well.”

Read more:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-05/adp-plunges-january-175k-biggest-miss-august-december-revised-lower

The labor force participation has plummeted since Obama took office.

 

 

 

 

US economic growth myth slammed by Richmond Fed president Jeffrey Lacker, GDP growth continues at 2 percent, Consumer spending moderate trend, Businesses reticent to hire and invest

US economic growth myth slammed by Richmond Fed president Jeffrey Lacker, GDP growth continues at 2 percent, Consumer spending moderate trend, Businesses reticent to hire and invest

“11.4%: What the U.S. unemployment rate would be if labor force participation were back to January 2008 levels.” …James Pethokoukis, American Enterprise Institute, June 2013

“Nearly half of U.S. companies are reluctant to hire full-time employees because of the ACA. One in five firms indicates they are likely to hire fewer employees, and another one in 10 may lay off current employees in response to the law.

Other firms will shift toward part-time workers. More than 40 percent of CFOs say their companies will consider switching some jobs to less than 30 hours per week or targeting part-time workers for future employment.”…Duke University Fuqua School of Business December 11, 2013

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

 

From Zero Hedge February 4, 2014.

“Fed’s Lacker Slams Permabulls, Pours Cold Water On The US “Growth Story””

“Unlike the other Fed presidents who are all too happy to lie in order to instill some confidence in a centrally-planned economy and market, not realizing that by doing so they hurt their own credibility, non-voting member Jeffrey Lacker and president of the Richmond Fed has a different approach – telling the truth. Which is why we read his just released speech this morning with interest since once again, it contains far more truth and honesty than anything else the FOMC releases. Sure enough, it has enough fire and brimstone to put even fringe bloggers to shame.

First, just as we have been warning for the past two quarters, all US growth was on the back of inventory – a trend which everyone now realizes is unsustainable. So does Lacker:

Economists’ hopes have been bolstered of late by a recent string of data releases indicating that 2013 ended on a positive note. Second-half growth in real GDP — our broadest measure of overall economic activity — was stronger than we’ve seen in quite some time. While that figure was boosted significantly by inventory accumulation that is unlikely to persist, there was some evidence of momentum that might carry forward.

That evidence, however, is on the back of a consumer who may or may not be back and spending freely once more. To Lacker, it is “may not”:

… It’s no surprise that credit is no longer available on the same terms. And it’s no surprise that consumers have been paying off debt and building up savings in order to restore some sense of balance to their household finances. These developments appear to have contributed to a persistent cautiousness in household spending. Over the last three years, real consumer spending has increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent. Although consumption grew rapidly at the end of last year, we have seen similar surges since the last recession, only to see spending return to a more moderate trend. Consumer spending trends are likely to depend on whether the dramatic events of the last few years are only a temporary disturbance to household sentiment or if they instead represent a more persistent shift in attitudes about borrowing and saving. At this point, I am inclined toward the latter view.

Next, Lacker slams the permabulls and their perpetual optimism that an improvement is just around the corner:

Many forecasters are citing the recent surge as support for projections of sustained growth at around 3 percent starting later this year. It’s worth pointing out, however, that this has been true at virtually every point in this expansion. In other words, ever since the recovery began, most forecasters have been expecting the economy to pick up speed in the next couple of quarters with the easing of headwinds that have been temporarily restraining growth. My own forecasts (at least initially) followed this script as well.

 

Despite these perennial hopes, the actual results have been more modest. Real GDP grew by 2.0 percent in 2011, 2.0 percent in 2012 and 1.8 percent for the first half of 2013. This record of relatively steady but modestly paced expansion, despite forecasts of an imminent increase in growth, helps motivate the more cautious economic outlook that I will share with you today.

Hoping that this is finally the year in which that long overdue CapEx spending will finally take place (and which is being halted by none other than the Fed as we explained nearly two years ago)? Don’t.

Businesses also appear to be quite reticent to hire and invest. A widely followed index of small business optimism fell sharply during the recession and has only partially recovered since then. Interestingly, when small business owners were asked in the latest survey about the single most important problem they face, 20 percent answered “government regulations and red tape.” This observation accords with reports we’ve been hearing from many business contacts for several years now.They’ve seen a substantial increase in the pace of regulatory change and a substantial increase in uncertainty about the shape of new regulationsBoth are said to discourage new hiring and investment commitments.”

Read more:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-04/feds-lacker-slams-permabulls-pours-cold-water-us-growth-story

 

Obama omits 32 stark facts from speech, Real state of the union, These stats don’t lie, Whose economy improving?, Increased poverty food stamps, Labor force plummets

Obama omits 32 stark facts from speech, Real state of the union, These stats don’t lie, Whose economy improving?, Increased poverty food stamps, Labor force plummets

“11.4%: What the U.S. unemployment rate would be if labor force participation were back to January 2008 levels.” …James Pethokoukis, American Enterprise Institute, June 2013

“Nearly half of U.S. companies are reluctant to hire full-time employees because of the ACA. One in five firms indicates they are likely to hire fewer employees, and another one in 10 may lay off current employees in response to the law.

Other firms will shift toward part-time workers. More than 40 percent of CFOs say their companies will consider switching some jobs to less than 30 hours per week or targeting part-time workers for future employment.”…Duke University Fuqua School of Business December 11, 2013

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

Whose economy is improving?

Yours on main street?

From The Economic Collapse January 29, 2014.

“32 Statistics That Obama Neglected To Mention During The State Of The Union Address”

” On Tuesday evening, Barack Obama once again attempted to convince all of us that things have gotten better while he has been in the White House.  He quoted a few figures, used some flowery language and made a whole bunch of new promises.  And even though he has failed to follow through on his promises time after time, millions upon millions of Americans continue to believe him. “

“The following are 32 statistics that Obama neglected to mention during the State of the Union address…
“#1 According to a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, only 28 percent of all Americans believe that the country is moving in the right direction.

#2 In 2008, 53 percent of all Americans considered themselves to be “middle class”. In 2014, only 44 percent of all Americans consider themselves to be “middle class”.

#3 In 2008, 25 percent of all Americans in the 18 to 29-year-old age bracket considered themselves to be “lower class”. In 2014, an astounding 49 percent of them do.

#4 Right now there is approximately a billion square feet of vacant retail space in the United States.

#5 There are 46.5 million Americans that are living in poverty, and the poverty rate in America has been at 15 percent or above for 3 consecutive years. That is the first time that has happened since 1965.

#6 Barack Obama says that the unemployment rate has declined to 6.7 percent, but if the labor force participation rate was at the long-term average it would actually be approximately 11.5 percent, and it has stayed at about that level since the end of the last recession.

#7 While Barack Obama has been in the White House, the number of Americans on food stamps has gone from 32 million to 47 million.

#8 While Barack Obama has been in the White House, the percentage of working age Americans that are actually working has declined from 60.6 percent to 58.6 percent.

#9 While Barack Obama has been in the White House, the average duration of unemployment in the United States has risen from 19.8 weeks to 37.1 weeks.”

Read more:

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/32-statistics-that-obama-neglected-to-mention-during-the-state-of-the-union-address

Obama jobs economy speech lies, Job creation, Health care costs, Deficit, Truth is record labor force participation food stamps deficit part time job creation, Increasing health care costs

Obama jobs economy speech lies, Job creation, Health care costs, Deficit, Truth is record labor force participation food stamps deficit part time job creation, Increasing health care costs

“11.4%: What the U.S. unemployment rate would be if labor force participation were back to January 2008 levels.” …James Pethokoukis, American Enterprise Institute, June 2013

“Over the last six months, of the net job creation, 97 percent of that is part-time work,”…Keith Hall, former BLS chief

“Nearly half of U.S. companies are reluctant to hire full-time employees because of the ACA. One in five firms indicates they are likely to hire fewer employees, and another one in 10 may lay off current employees in response to the law.

Other firms will shift toward part-time workers. More than 40 percent of CFOs say their companies will consider switching some jobs to less than 30 hours per week or targeting part-time workers for future employment.”…Duke University Fuqua School of Business December 11, 2013

How do you know when Obama is lying?

When his lips are moving.

From a speech Obama gave on January 7, 2014.

“You know, a few weeks ago I said that 2014 could be a breakthrough year for America. Think about it. Five years ago this month, our economy was shedding 800,000 jobs, just in one month. But as Americans buckled down and worked hard and sacrificed, we began to come back. And our businesses have created more than 8 million new jobs since we hit the bottom. Our auto industry’s gone from bust to boom. Manufacturing’s rebounding. The housing market’s rebounding. Stock markets are restoring retirement accounts. The promise of energy independence is actually in sight. Health care costs eat up less of our economy. Over the past four years, costs have grown at the slowest rate on record. And since I’ve took office, we’ve cut our deficits by more than half.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/transcript-president-obamas-jan-7-remarks-on-unemployment/2014/01/07/79c65704-77bc-11e3-b1c5-739e63e9c9a7_story.html

Now for the truth.

28,223,000 Americans were on food stamps when Obama took office.

At the end of 2013 there were 47,636,000 Americans on food stamps.

When Obama took office in January 2009 vs December 2013.

Labor Force Participation Rate then 65.7   now  62.8

Employment-Population Ratio then  60.6   now  58.6

Not in Labor Force then  80,529,000 now  91,808,000
Not in Labor Force want a job now then  5,708,000 now 6,111,000
Could only find part time work then 1,671,000 now 2,586,000
From the Independent Journal Review.
“The Poverty President: How Obama’s Economic Policies are a Disaster”
“Since the moment he came into office, President Obama has pursued the same failed liberal policies that extended the Great Depression, instituted the socially corrosive Great Society programs, and has grown government beyond America’s ability to afford it. Estimates of the U.S. long-term unfunded liabilities range from $87 trillion to an astounding $211 trillion.
One of the first measures Obama undertook was passing an ultimately $812 billion “stimulus” program. After glibly admitting that ‘shovel-ready (jobs) was not as shovel-ready as we expected,’ the U.S. is still far off the jobs trajectory projected by his advisers; while it was presumed the U.S. would be near 5% unemployment, we are at 7.3% — and that’s with millions dropping out of the workforce.
Instead of focusing on generating jobs and growing the productive economy, President Obama decided to work with the Democrat Congress to force through a trillion-dollar boondoggle known as ObamaCare against the objections of the majority of Americans.
President Obama said in an ABC News interview in 2009 that if Congress did not pass health care legislation that brought down costs, the federal government “will go bankrupt.” The ten-year cost estimate since then has tripled from $900 billion to nearly $2.7 trillion, and the GAO estimates the program will add $6.2 trillion in debt liability.
The “unintended consequences” of the ObamaCare provision that employers with 50 or more full-time employees at 30 hours a week or more must offer certain health insurance plans has predictably led to small businesses with more part-time employees. While the president has illegally suspended his enforcement of duly passed law, the “employer mandate” provision, full-time hiring is not expected to pick up due to long-term uncertainty.
Nearly 2.5 million of the ‘jobs created’ under President Obama are part-time; as a separate figure, 2.7 million of those ‘jobs created’ are temporary hires — a 50% increase over Obama’s time in office.
The president claims he has created 7.2 million jobs. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there were 154,526,000 in the Civilian Labor Force in February 2009 and in June 2013 there were 155,835,000. That would be a net gain of 1.309 million more people working civilian jobs as of the latest figures. The labor force participation rate of 63.5% is hovering at the lowest levels since late 1978.
Even if we took this at face value, like a good Democrat loyalist would, this is still less than half the people added to the food stamp rolls — 15 million folks. The escalating gas, electricity, and food prices, as well as the ObamaCare “sticker shock” on health insurance premiums for an estimated 75% of Americans will not ease their budgets. And the AP now estimates that 4 in 5 Americans are in poverty, low-income, or have no jobs.”

Read more:

http://www.ijreview.com/2013/07/69124-the-poverty-president-how-obamas-economic-policies-are-a-disaster/

Labor force participation collapse from younger dropouts not retirees, Zero Hedge nails it, More younger people born to replace older, Labor force should be increasing not decreasing

Labor force participation collapse from younger dropouts not retirees, Zero Hedge nails it, More younger people born to replace older, Labor force should be increasing not decreasing

“People 55 to 64 years old, the first forget-about-retirement generation, are staying in the labor force to an ever greater degree. In 1992, only 56.2% were still in the labor force, in 2012, 64.5% were. Similar for older folks. The participation rate for people 65 to 74 years old jumped from 16.3% to 26.8%. Reality is this: fewer people can afford to retire.”…Zero Hedge January 8, 2014

“11.4%: What the U.S. unemployment rate would be if labor force participation were back to January 2008 levels.” …James Pethokoukis, American Enterprise Institute, June 2013

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

 

As pointed out at Citizen Wells, there should be an increasing labor force not decreasing. More younger people are born than are left in the aging populations to retire. And older workers are not retiring in droves.

From Citizen Wells November 9, 2013.

Is the repeated emphasis by the Washington Post on the impact of baby boomers on the plummeting  force participation rate an intentional lie or just sloppy or biased reporting?

Intentional or not it is a lie.

Citizen Wells first criticized the Washington Post on May 9, 2012 for this false report.

“The Washington Post on May 4, 2012 posted a very misleading article titled “The incredible shrinking labor force.” Is this another example of sloppy or biased journalism or both?”

“The verbage in the top right corner looked suspicious, ”As the most recent recession hits the workforce, larger numbers of baby boomers begin to retire.” Yesterday I called the Bureau of Labor Statistics and discovered that they had not placed those words there. It was the work of the Washington Post.

So why did the Post superimpose that wording about baby boomers on the graph?”

“Critics of the Obama administration have been quick to seize on this as the real reason for the falling unemployment rate. In February, the Republican National Committee released a research note on “The Missing Worker,” arguing that “over 3 million unemployed workers have called it quits due to Obamanomics.”

Economists say the story is considerably more complicated. For one thing, the trend predates President Obama. And while part of the story is clearly that the labor force is shrinking because the bad economy is driving workers out, another significant factor is that baby boomers are beginning to retire early — a trend that has worrying implications for future growth.”
“But a number of economists are arguing that the recession is distracting people from the real story — long-run demographic trends that have nothing to do with the current economy. Baby boomers are starting to retire en masse, which means that there are fewer eligible American workers.”

http://citizenwells.wordpress.com/2012/05/09/washington-post-misrepresents-labor-force-participation-rate-unemployment-rate-blamed-on-baby-boomers-selective-quoting-post-receives-4-orwells/

On September 6, 2013 the Washington Post reported.

“So why is the labor force dropping? There are a couple big factors going on here. Older Americans are retiring, younger Americans are going back to school, and many workers have been discouraged by the weak U.S. economy. Here’s an updated breakdown:

1) The aging of America. One big reason the participation rate dropped involves long-run demographic trends that have nothing to do with the current economy. Baby boomers are starting to retire en masse, which means that there are fewer eligible American workers.

Demographics have always played a big role in the rise and fall of the labor force. Between 1960 and 2000, the labor force in the United States surged from 59 percent to a peak of 67.3 percent. That was largely due to the fact that more women were entering the labor force while improvements in health and information technology allowed Americans to work more years.

But since 2000, the labor force rate has been steadily declining as the baby-boom generation has been retiring.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/09/06/the-incredible-shrinking-labor-force-again/

On November 8, 2013 the Washington Post once again listed older workers retiring first as a cause of the drop. They did, however, add some clarification as if to back off of their position.

“So what’s up with that broader trend? Why has the participation rate been dropping in recent years? There are a couple big factors going on here. Older Americans are retiring, younger Americans are going back to school, and many workers have been discouraged by the weak U.S. economy. Here’s an updated breakdown:

1) The aging of America. One big reason the participation rate dropped involves long-run demographic trends that have little to do with the current economy. Baby boomers are starting to retire en masse, which means that there are fewer eligible American workers.

Demographics have always played a big role in the rise and fall of the labor force. Between 1960 and 2000, the labor force in the United States surged from 59 percent to a peak of 67.3 percent. That was largely due to the fact that more women were entering the labor force while improvements in health and information technology allowed Americans to work more years.

But since 2000, the labor force rate has been declining steadily as the baby-boom generation has been retiring. “

“So what’s going on? One theory is that the weak job market is causing people to simply give up looking for work — they’re crumpling up their resumes and going home. A recent paper (pdf) from the Boston Fed suggested that these “non-inevitable dropouts” might even account for the bulk of the decline.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/11/08/the-u-s-labor-force-is-still-shrinking-rapidly-heres-why/

I am going to make this real simple.

Let’s ignore immigrants increasing our work force for the moment.

The baby boomer generation is known for it’s size. However, due to the growth in the US, recent generations are even larger.

Let’s take the example of those turning 65 in 2014, born in 1949 and those turning 22 in 2014, born in 1992. I chose age 22 to account for college even though some of them entered the work force earlier, if they could find a job.

There were  3.56 million people born in the US in 1949. 85 % or 3.026 million are alive.

There were 4.08 million people born in 1992. Probably at least 4 million still alive.

Let’ assume that all of the people who turn 65 next year retire.

That is still a net gain of about a million potential workers.

As we all know, all of those people do not stop working unless they cannot find a job.

From the CBO.

“The resulting rise in the projected rates of labor force participation for older people is noteworthy. For men ages 62 to 64, CBO projects that the rate of labor force participation will rise from about 52 percent in 2012 to about 55 percent in 2022. For men ages 65 to 69, the projected rate rises from about 37 percent in 2012 to about 41 percent in 2022. The changes for women are similar: The projected rate of labor force participation for women ages 62 to 64 rises from about 44 percent to about 48 percent, and for women ages 65 to 69, the projected rate increases from about 28 percent to about 32 percent. In 2022, the FRA will be 67 only for people age 62 or younger in that year. As that group ages and the FRA gradually becomes 67 for all older people, CBO projects that the labor force participation rate for older people will continue to increase, although at a slower pace.”

http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43834

That’s right. You read it correctly.

Men ages 62 to 64:  rate of labor force participation  about 52 percent in 2012.

Men ages 65 to 69:   37 percent in 2012.

Once again I am compelled to award the Washington Post 4 Orwells.

http://citizenwells.wordpress.com/2013/11/09/washington-post-lies-about-baby-boomer-impact-on-labor-force-participation-rate-more-young-people-enter-job-market-than-retire-older-folks-continue-working-intentional-lie-sloppy-reporting-or-cove/

Zero Hedge nails it again.

“A few days ago we disproved, in what we hoped would be the last time, any insinuation that the collapse in the labor force is due to demographics (a topic we had covered before) when we showed that it was just 10 short years ago that the Bureau of Labor Statistics itself was forecasting an increase in the overall participation rate - here we assume logically that America’s demographic profile was known to its labor market experts in 2004 – only to slowly at first, then very fast, revise it ever lower… and still it was unable to catch up to the unfolding gruesome reality.

Yet somehow, so called finance experts, econ PhDs, central planners and other ivory tower dwellers still refuse to let this topic go, and continue to reference the participation rate and demographics in the same sentence. So to truly end any speculation that the plunge in the labor force is due to “old people”, defined as workers 55 and over, retiring, here is a chart (which in an update of a post we didfirst in October 2012 and it took the rest of the media world only 14 months to catch up) of the cumulative job gains broken down by “young”, or those 16-54, vs “old”, those 55 and over.

Spot something wierd?

It seems that the “old” age worker group – that which is supposed to be bleeding workers to retirement – has had zero job losses since the start of the Depression in December 2007, while it was the “younger” workers who according to the BLS’ Household Survey, have hit the labor cliff and seen their number collapse, dropping as much a 6 million, and only slowly rising, with another 3.5 million jobs left to catch up before pre-recession levels are met.”

Read more:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-20/spot-labor-force-collapse-culprit

 

 

 

NC employment unemployment truth January 2014, Labor force droputs, Participation rate plummets, Employment spin, Greensboro News Record awarded 2 Murrows

NC employment unemployment truth January 2014, Labor force droputs, Participation rate plummets, Employment spin, Greensboro News Record awarded 2 Murrows

“You can’t fix a problem unless you acknowledge and understand it.”…Citizen Wells

“11.4%: What the U.S. unemployment rate would be if labor force participation were back to January 2008 levels.” …James Pethokoukis, American Enterprise Institute, June 2013

“The function of the press is very high. It is almost Holy.
It ought to serve as a forum for the people, through which
the people may know freely what is going on. To misstate or
suppress the news is a breach of trust.”…. Louis D. Brandeis

 

 

It is fitting and proper that I award 2 Murrows to the Greensboro News Record. Edward R. Murrow was born just outside of Greensboro.

I will award more Murrows to the News Record when they report in the same manner on the US unemployment situation and Obama Administration.

From the Greensboro News Record January 7, 2014.

(print edition sub heading)

 

“People dropping out of the labor force might be skewing the decline.”

“The unemployment rate in the Greensboro/High Point metro area is the lowest since late 2008, when the economy began shedding jobs at an alarming rate.

The rate dropped to a seasonally adjusted 7.8 percent in November, the N.C. Department of Commerce reported Tuesday.

That’s a drop of 2.1 percentage points compared with November 2012.

It’s also the lowest rate in five years, when it was 7.9 percent.

But a closer look suggests the Greensboro/High Point metro’s job market may not be as healthy as it seems.

Despite the drop in the unemployment rate, the state’s survey of households suggests the region is adding few jobs.

The number of employed people is virtually unchanged since the end of 2012.”

Read more:

http://www.news-record.com/business/article_2fe50f6a-77ba-11e3-b6a7-0019bb30f31a.html

From the Greensboro News Record editorial January 9, 2014.

“Employment spin”

“After North Carolina cut unemployment benefits last summer, people went out and got jobs.

That’s the compelling story line Republicans are spreading to explain one reason for the state’s rapidly falling unemployment rate. It was 8.9 percent in July, when extended benefits ended and weekly payments decreased, and it declined steadily to 7.4 percent in November.

“Give people incentives to stay home, many will stay home. Give them incentives to work, and many more will work,” Jim Tynan wrote last week for the conservative journal Civitas Review Online.

Is it that simple? Can North Carolina, and the entire country, turn the economy around by cutting off unemployment benefits?”

“It’s not that simple. While more people are working, a much greater number have left the workforce. UNCG economist Andrew Brod noted recently that if the state’s labor force had been as large in November as it was in January, the most recent unemployment rate would have been 9.5 percent instead of 7.4 percent. Harvard economist Lawrence Katz last week said North Carolina’s shrinking labor force accounts for 95 percent of the falling unemployment rate. Job growth accounts for just 5 percent.”

“The bottom line for North Carolina’s economy is jobs. The number is slowly increasing, but the percentage of the state’s population that is employed hasn’t improved. If the problem were as easy to solve as some suggest — cutting off unemployment benefits — North Carolina would be in the fast lane to prosperity.”

Read more:

http://www.news-record.com/opinion/n_and_r_editorials/article_b3407324-78ad-11e3-912e-0019bb30f31a.html

The Greensboro News Record is awarded 2 Murrows.

Murrows2

 

NC Governor McCrory unemployment rate drop taken from Obama playbook, Labor force participation rate plummets in North Carolina, Economy created by Obama and Democrat governments not corrected in one year

NC Governor McCrory unemployment rate drop taken from Obama playbook, Labor force participation rate plummets in North Carolina, Economy created by Obama and  Democrat governments not corrected in one year

“11.4%: What the U.S. unemployment rate would be if labor force participation were back to January 2008 levels.” …James Pethokoukis, American Enterprise Institute, June 2013

“Over the last six months, of the net job creation, 97 percent of that is part-time work,”…Keith Hall, former BLS chief

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

 

 

Republican Governor Pat McCrory probably has taken measures to improve the economy and jobs situation in NC.

He inherited a mess from the former convicted Mike Easley administration and pro Obama Perdue government.

However, using Obama tactics to misrepresent the unemployment rate in NC will not help his cause.

From the Greensboro News Record January 7, 2014.

“McCrory: ‘Carolina Comeback’ economic recovery”

“Gov. Pat McCrory touted what he termed as the “Great Carolina Comeback” on Monday as evidence the state’s Republican-authored economic and tax reforms are working.
McCrory was the keynote speaker at the Annual Economic Forecast Forum hosted by the North Carolina Bankers Association and North Carolina Chamber. The crowd of about 1,000 people at the luncheon were friendly to McCrory’s pro-business message, giving the governor a standing ovation as he took the stage.

“We had the highest tax rates in the Southeast,” McCrory said. “… We think this tax reform, which lowered your corporate tax rates and lowered your income tax rate, will help existing businesses grow and help in the recruitment of new businesses and we’re already seeing a very positive impact.””
“McCrory cited the 2 percentage point drop in the state’s unemployment rate since he took office last January as evidence of the success of his administration’s agenda.

That state’s 7.4 percent unemployment rate is still higher than the national average, which has also declined in the past year. The size of the state’s total labor force has also declined as economists have said many unemployed people gave up looking for jobs, while the number of people actually employed has grown very modestly by about 6,100 workers.”

Read more:

http://www.news-record.com/news/north_carolina_ap/article_fe4eeb5a-9ccf-57d7-b50b-6265f99285cc.html

From Citizen Wells December 22, 2013.

“I expect orwellian employment reporting from the Obama controlled US Government. I am less inclined to expect the same from the state of NC.

The unemployment rate fell from 9.5 percent in January to 7.4 percent in November. Yet there were fewer people employed in November than January.”

Why is the following not being reported?

In January of 2013 there were 4,322,922 people employed.

In November of 2013 there were 4,314,502 people employed.

The labor force participation rate plummeted from 63.4 percent to 61.3 percent in the same period.

http://esesc23.esc.state.nc.us/d4/LausSelection.aspx

http://citizenwells.wordpress.com/2013/12/22/nc-employment-november-2013-fact-vs-fiction-unemployment-rate-drops-from-9-5-to-7-4-percent-jan-to-nov-2013-fewer-working-in-nov-than-jan-labor-force-participation-rate-plummets/

Obamacare political power buying votes and redistribution of wealth, Tax and control, Monterey County CA example, Enabling subsizdizing and expanding the Left’s political power base

Obamacare political power buying votes and redistribution of wealth, Tax and control, Monterey County CA example, Enabling subsizdizing and expanding the Left’s political power base

“The study says 27-year-old men in Nebraska will see a whopping 279 percent increase in premiums and 27-year-old women in Nebraska will get an also-shocking 227 percent increase in rates.”…Watchdog.org

“millions of Americans are getting or are about to get cancellation letters for their health insurance under Obamacare, say experts, and the Obama administration has known that for at least three years.”…NBC News October 29, 2013

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

 

 

I began referring to Obamacare as a tax and control bill early in 2010.

It is much more than that, aside from it’s wide spread impact on our healthcare system and economy.

It is, of course, a way for the left to expand their voter and control base.

The following was sent to me in an email.

What ObamaCare is Really About!
I’m a 54 year old consulting engineer and make between $60,000 and $125,000 per year, depending on how hard I work and whether or not there are work projects out there for me.
My girlfriend is 61 and makes about $18,000 per year, working as a part-time mail clerk.
For me, making $60,000 a year, under ObamaCare, the cheapest, lowest grade policy I can buy, which also happens to impose a $5,000 deductible, costs $482 per month.
For my girlfriend, the same exact policy, same deductible, costs $1 per month. That’s right, $1 per month. I’m not making this up.
Don’t believe me? Just go to www.coveredca.gov , the ObamaCare website for California and enter the parameters I’ve mentioned above and see for yourself. By the way, my zip code is 93940. You’ll need to enter that.
So OK, clearly ObamaCare is a scheme that involves putting the cost burden of healthcare onto the middle and upper-income wage earners. But there’s a lot more to it. Stick with me.
And before I make my next points, I’d like you to think about something:
I live in Monterey County, in Central California. We have a large land mass but just 426,000 residents – about the population of Colorado Springs or the city of Omaha.
But we do have a large Hispanic population, including a large number of illegal aliens, and to serve this group we have Natividad Medical Center, a massive, Federally subsidized county medical complex that takes up an area about one-third the size of the Chrysler Corporation automobile assembly plant in Belvedere, Illinois (see Google Earth View). Natividad has state-of-the-art operating rooms, Computed Tomography and Magnetic Resonance Imaging, fully equipped, 24 hour emergency room, and much more. If you have no insurance, if you’ve been in a drive-by shooting or have overdosed on crack cocaine, this is where you go. And it’s essentially free, because almost everyone who ends up in the ER is uninsured.
Last year, 2,735 babies were born at Natividad. 32% of these were born to out-of-wedlock teenage mothers, 93% of which were Hispanic. Less than 20% could demonstrate proof of citizenship, and 71% listed their native language as Spanish. Of these 876 births, only 40 were covered under [any kind of] private health insurance. The taxpayers paid for the other 836. And in case you were wondering about the entire population – all 2,735 births – less than 24% involved insured coverage or even partial payment on behalf of the patient to the hospital in exchange for services. Keep this in mind as we move forward.
Now consider this:
If I want to upgrade my policy to a low-deductible premium policy, such as what I had with my last employer, my cost is $886 per month. But my girlfriend can upgrade her policy to the very same level, for just $4 per month. That’s right, $4 per month. $48 per year for a zero-deductible, premium healthcare policy – the kind of thing you get when you work at IBM (except of course, IBM employees pay an average of $170 per month out of pocket for their coverage).
I mean, it’s bad enough that I will be forced to subsidize the ObamaCare scheme in the first place. But even if I agreed with the basic scheme, which of course I do not, I would never agree to subsidize premium policies. If I have to pay $482 a month for a budget policy, I sure as hell do not want the guy I’m subsidizing to get a better policy, for less that 1% of what I have to fork out each month for a low-end policy.
Why must I pay $482 per month for something the other guy gets for a dollar? And why should the other guy get to buy an $886 policy for $4 a month? Think about this: I have to pay $10,632 a year for the same thing that the other guy can get for $48. $10,000 of net income is 60 days of full time work as an engineer. $48 is something I could could pay for collecting aluminum cans and plastic bottles, one day a month.
Are you with me on this? Are you starting to get an idea what ObamaCare is really about?
ObamaCare is not about dealing with inequities in the healthcare system. That’s just the cover story. The real story is that it is a massive, political power grab. Do you think anyone who can insure himself with a premium policy for $4 a month will vote for anyone but the political party that provides him such a deal? ObamaCare is about enabling, subsidizing, and expanding the Left’s political power base, at taxpayer expense. Why would I vote for anyone but a Democrat if I can have babies for $4 a month? For that matter, why would I go to college or strive for a better job or income if it means I have to pay real money for healthcare coverage? Heck, why study engineering when I can be a schlub for $20K per year and buy a new F-150 with all the money I’m saving?
And think about those $4-a-month babies – think in terms of propagation models. Think of just how many babies will be born to irresponsible, under-educated mothers. Will we get a new crop of brain surgeons and particle physicists from the dollar baby club, or will we need more cops, criminal courts and prisons? One thing you can be certain of: At $4 a month, they’ll multiply, and multiply, and multiply. And not one of them will vote Republican.
ObamaCare: It’s all about political power, buying votes, and the redistribution of wealth (Marxism).
The earliest reference that I found on an internet search was here:
Regardless of the source, the information rings true.

Obama mainstream media Orwellian spin, Economic recovery Of 2013 giant lie, If you repeat a lie often enough people will believe it, No employment recovery, Millions left labor force

Obama mainstream media Orwellian spin, Economic recovery Of 2013 giant lie, If you repeat a lie often enough people will believe it, No employment recovery, Millions left labor force

“You get a declining unemployment rate. But it appears to be an artifact of people leaving the labor force, not of more people having jobs,”… UNCG Economist Andrew Brod, December 5, 2013

“11.4%: What the U.S. unemployment rate would be if labor force participation were back to January 2008 levels.” …James Pethokoukis, American Enterprise Institute, June 2013

“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it”…Joseph Goebbels

 

 

I have endeavored to keep you apprised of the real economic conditions in this country. Especially the jobs situation.

Many thanks to Zero Hedge for this cogent article December 9, 2013.
“37 Reasons Why “The Economic Recovery Of 2013″ Is A Giant Lie”

“”If you repeat a lie often enough, people will believe it.”  Sadly, that appears to be the approach that the Obama administration and the mainstream media are taking with the U.S. economy.  They seem to believe that if they just keep telling the American people over and over that things are getting better, eventually the American people will believe that it is actually true.

On Friday, it was announced that the unemployment rate had fallen to “7 percent”, and the mainstream media responded with a mix of euphoria and jubilation.  For example, one USA Today article declared that “with today’s jobs report, one really can say that our long national post-financial crisis nightmare is over.”  But is that actually the truth?  As you will see below, if you assume that the labor force participation rate in the U.S. is at the long-term average, the unemployment rate in the United States would actually be 11.5 percent instead of 7 percent.

There has been absolutely no employment recovery.  The percentage of Americans that are actually working has stayed between 58 and 59 percent for 51 months in a row.  But most Americans don’t understand these things and they just take whatever the mainstream media tells them as the truth.

And of course the reality of the matter is that we should have seen some sort of an economic recovery by now.  Those running our system have literally been mortgaging the future in a desperate attempt to try to pump up our economic numbers.  The federal government has been on the greatest debt binge in U.S. history and the Federal Reserve has been printing money like crazed lunatics.  All of that “stimulus” should have had some positive short-term effects on the economy.

Sadly, all of those “emergency measures” do not appear to have done much at all.  The percentage of Americans that have a job has stayed remarkably flat since the end of 2009, median household income has fallen for five years in a row, and the rate of homeownership in the United States has fallen for eight years in a row.  Anyone that claims that the U.S. economy is experiencing a “recovery” is simply not telling the truth.  The following are 37 reasons why “the economic recovery of 2013″ is a giant lie…

#1 The only reason that the official unemployment rate has been declining over the past couple of years is that the federal government has been pretending that millions upon millions of unemployed Americans no longer want a job and have “left the labor force”.  As Zero Hedge recently demonstrated, if the labor force participation rate returned to the long-term average of 65.8 percent, the official unemployment rate in the United States would actually be 11.5 percent instead of 7 percent.

#2 The percentage of Americans that are actually working is much lower than it used to be.  In November 2000, 64.3 percent of all working age Americans had a job.  When Barack Obama first entered the White House, 60.6 percent of all working age Americans had a job.  Today, only 58.6 percent of all working age Americans have a job.  In fact, as you can see from the chart posted below, there has been absolutely no “employment recovery” since the depths of the last recession…

Employment-Population Ratio 2013

#3 The employment-population ratio has now been under 59 percent for 51 months in a row.

#4 There are 1,148,000 fewer Americans working today than there was in November 2006.  Meanwhile, our population has grown by more than 16 million people during that time frame.

#5 The “inactivity rate” for men in their prime working years (25 to 54) has just hit a brand new all-time record high.  Does this look like an “economic recovery” to you?…

Inactivity Rate Men

#6 The number of working age Americans without a job has increased by a total of 27 million since the year 2000.

#7 In November 2007, there were 121.9 million full-time workers in the United States.  Today, there are only 116.9 million full-time workers in the United States.”

Read more:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-09/37-reasons-why-economic-recovery-2013-giant-lie

What it’s like to be poor and make terrible decisions, Poverty thoughts, Obama economy, Smoking a stimulant for exhausted, Lot of poor financial decisions, Poor exploited units of human capital

What it’s like to be poor and make terrible decisions, Poverty thoughts, Obama economy, Smoking a stimulant for exhausted, Lot of poor financial decisions, Poor exploited units of human capital

“In the Triad, a number of studies have ranked the area among the nation’s worst in terms of poverty and food hardship.”

““You have the people that were barely making it with 40 hours. Now, they’re below 30 hours and have the same household bills,” Sturdivant said. “And at the end of the day, if they go out and get another part-time job, they still won’t have insurance.””...Greensboro News Record September 2, 2013

“This commentary does not oppose CHD funding of genuine, grassroots community organizations, run and supported by individual members of a parish or diocese. There is potential value and virtue in the collective voice. However, when the CHD funds Alinsky-style, church-based community organizations as in the best interest of the poor and supports organizations which advance other agendas, it divests the poor of their right to an authentic voice. This process tends to treat the poor as exploited units of human capital, rather than as human beings created in the dignity of God’s image.”…report to the Catholic Bishops 1997

“And the Records Department, after all, was itself only a single branch of the Ministry of Truth, whose primary job was not to reconstruct the past but to supply the citizens of Oceania with newspapers, films, textbooks, telescreen programmes”

“Winston sprang to attention in front of the telescreen, upon which the image of a youngish woman, scrawny but muscular, dressed in tunic and gym-shoes, had already appeared.

‘Arms bending and stretching!’ she rapped out. ‘Take your time by me. One, two, three, four! One, two, three, four! Come on, comrades, put a bit of life into it! One, two, three, four! One, two, three, four! …’”…George Orwell, “1984″

 

 

I have much empathy for the poor and those struggling in this country. Especially in the Obama economy.

I was recently reminded of the drop in savings in this country over decades. We are programmed to spend.

The TV screen of “1984″ is a reality. We are taught how to think, what to do and what to spend our money on.

We leave our schools ill prepared for survival in any economy.

Many of the poor are so because of bad choices. We all make them. And yet immigrants have come to this country for hundreds of years and fared well.

Despite the facts, it can happen to any of us. The Great Depression humbled many.

At the end of the day, I still believe we should help those in need. A real safety net, not way of life. Teach how to fish and sometimes provide a fish.

From Zero Hedge November 23, 2013.
“What It’s Like To Be Poor – And Make Terrible Decisions”

 

“What It’s Like To Be Poor – And Make Terrible Decisions”
“There are many reasons why the poor are ‘poor’ or why the middle-class is deteriorating into a state of being ‘poor’ but as this first-person account of the self-defeating feedback loops of poverty’s trap harrowingly suggests, escaping that social strata (as we noted previously) is becoming ever more difficult. Of course, a George Carlin noted previously, “the only true American value is… buying things,” which leaves the ‘poor’ increasingly losing hope. “Rest is a luxury for the rich,” the author notes, “planning is not in the mix,” as she explains why poverty has forced her to “make terrible decisions.”

Authored by @KillerMartinis (Killer Martinis blog) via The Burning Platform blog,

Why I Make Terrible Decisions, or, poverty thoughts

There’s no way to structure this coherently. They are random observations that might help explain the mental processes. But often, I think that we look at the academic problems of poverty and have no idea of the why. We know the what and the how, and we can see systemic problems, but it’s rare to have a poor person actually explain it on their own behalf. So this is me doing that, sort of.

Rest is a luxury for the rich. I get up at 6AM, go to school (I have a full courseload, but I only have to go to two in-person classes) then work, then I get the kids, then I pick up my husband, then I have half an hour to change and go to Job 2. I get home from that at around 1230AM, then I have the rest of my classes and work to tend to. I’m in bed by 3. This isn’t every day, I have two days off a week from each of my obligations. I use that time to clean the house and soothe Mr. Martini and see the kids for longer than an hour and catch up on schoolwork. Those nights I’m in bed by midnight, but if I go to bed too early I won’t be able to stay up the other nights because I’ll fuck my pattern up, and I drive an hour home from Job 2 so I can’t afford to be sleepy. I never get a day off from work unless I am fairly sick. It doesn’t leave you much room to think about what you are doing, only to attend to the next thing and the next. Planning isn’t in the mix.

When I was pregnant the first time, I was living in a weekly motel for some time. I had a minifridge with no freezer and a microwave. I was on WIC. I ate peanut butter from the jar and frozen burritos because they were 12/$2. Had I had a stove, I couldn’t have made beef burritos that cheaply. And I needed the meat, I was pregnant. I might not have had any prenatal care, but I am intelligent enough to eat protein and iron whilst knocked up.

I know how to cook. I had to take Home Ec to graduate high school. Most people on my level didn’t. Broccoli is intimidating. You have to have a working stove, and pots, and spices, and you’ll have to do the dishes no matter how tired you are or they’ll attract bugs. It is a huge new skill for a lot of people. That’s not great, but it’s true. And if you fuck it up, you could make your family sick. We have learned not to try too hard to be middle-class. It never works out well and always makes you feel worse for having tried and failed yet again. Better not to try. It makes more sense to get food that you know will be palatable and cheap and that keeps well. Junk food is a pleasure that we are allowed to have; why would we give that up? We have very few of them.”
“Nobody gives enough thought to depression. You have to understand that we know that we will never not feel tired. We will never feel hopeful. We will never get a vacation. Ever. We know that the very act of being poor guarantees that we will never not be poor. It doesn’t give us much reason to improve ourselves. We don’t apply for jobs because we know we can’t afford to look nice enough to hold them. I would make a super legal secretary, but I’ve been turned down more than once because I “don’t fit the image of the firm,” which is a nice way of saying “gtfo, pov.” I am good enough to cook the food, hidden away in the kitchen, but my boss won’t make me a server because I don’t “fit the corporate image.” I am not beautiful. I have missing teeth and skin that looks like it will when you live on b12 and coffee and nicotine and no sleep. Beauty is a thing you get when you can afford it, and that’s how you get the job that you need in order to be beautiful. There isn’t much point trying.”
“I smoke. It’s expensive. It’s also the best option. You see, I am always, always exhausted. It’s a stimulant. When I am too tired to walk one more step, I can smoke and go for another hour. When I am enraged and beaten down and incapable of accomplishing one more thing, I can smoke and I feel a little better, just for a minute. It is the only relaxation I am allowed. It is not a good decision, but it is the only one that I have access to. It is the only thing I have found that keeps me from collapsing or exploding.

I make a lot of poor financial decisions. None of them matter, in the long term. I will never not be poor, so what does it matter if I don’t pay a thing and a half this week instead of just one thing? It’s not like the sacrifice will result in improved circumstances; the thing holding me back isn’t that I blow five bucks at Wendy’s. It’s that now that I have proven that I am a Poor Person that is all that I am or ever will be. It is not worth it to me to live a bleak life devoid of small pleasures so that one day I can make a single large purchase. I will never have large pleasures to hold on to. There’s a certain pull to live what bits of life you can while there’s money in your pocket, because no matter how responsible you are you will be broke in three days anyway. When you never have enough money it ceases to have meaning. I imagine having a lot of it is the same thing.”

I urge you to read more:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-23/what-its-be-poor-and-make-terrible-decisions