Category Archives: ObamaCare

April unemployment rate, US Labor Dept., May 2, 2014, Labor force participation plummets and jobless rates still high, Part time jobs, Financial markets react to false data

April unemployment rate, US Labor Dept., May 2, 2014, Labor force participation plummets and jobless rates still high, Part time jobs, Financial markets react to false data

“11.4%: What the U.S. unemployment rate would be if labor force participation were back to January 2008 levels.” …James Pethokoukis, American Enterprise Institute, June 2013

“Over the last six months, of the net job creation, 97 percent of that is part-time work,”…Keith Hall, former BLS chief

“According to shocking new numbers that were just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 20 percent of American families do not have a single person that is working. So when someone tries to tell you that the unemployment rate in the United States is about 7 percent, you should just laugh. One-fifth of the families in the entire country do not have a single member with a job. That is absolutely astonishing. How can a family survive if nobody is making any money? Well, the answer to that question is actually quite easy. There is a reason why government dependence has reached epidemic levels in the United States. Without enough jobs, tens of millions of additional Americans have been forced to reach out to the government for help. At this point, if you can believe it, the number of Americans getting money or benefits from the federal government each month exceeds the number of full-time workers in the private sector by more than 60 million.”…Zero Hedge April 29, 2014

 

 

***  Update 9:00 AM  ***

Here we go again folks. SOS, just another day.

The unemployment rate dropped .4 percent to 6.3 as did the labor force participation rate drop .4 percent to 62.8 percent.

The labor force dropped by 806,000.

***  Update 9:15AM  ***

The BLS is showing a seasonally adjusted drop in labor force of 988,000.

***

The US Labor Dept. will report on the April unemployment rate this morning.

Those of us paying attention, with at least minimal math skills, understand that the stated unemployment rate has become a joke.

Yet, for years, the financial markets and market reporters have taken the drop in the unemployment rate as good news.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

To sum up the reality of the situation, record numbers have dropped out of the labor force, not because they intended to retire, but because jobs were not available, and many who did get or retain jobs found themselves working one or more part time jobs.

More part time instead of full time jobs is a direct consequence of Obamacare and the Obama economy.

When you read the US Labor Dept report and see the latest unemployment rate, consider the following facts.

Remember, the Democrats took control of both houses of Congress in January 2007. This is rarely reported.
………………………..January 2007……January 2009…….March 2014
Not in labor force………..77,506,000……..80,529,000………91,030,000
Could only find part time….. 1,186,000……..1,671,000……….2,697,000
Participation Rate………………66.4………….65.7……………63.2
Unemployment Rate………………..4.6…………..7.8…………….6.7

 

See any problems there?

Remember also that part time jobs are counted the same as full time.

There are 10,501,000 more people not in the labor force now than when Obama took office in January 2009.

The stated unemployment rate has dropped 1.1 percent.

The labor force participation rate has dropped 2.5 percent.

There are 1,026,000 more people who could only find part time work now than when Obama took office.

We just discovered that 20 percent of American families have no one employed.

No wonder that we have record food stamp usage.

Obamacare impact on Americans and economy, Higher premiums and deductibles, Medicare payments redirected, Employer costs passed on, Part time jobs instead of full time

Obamacare impact on Americans and economy, Higher premiums and deductibles, Medicare payments redirected, Employer costs passed on, Part time jobs instead of full time

“About two-thirds of the hospitals serving Medicare patients, or some 2,200 facilities, will be hit with penalties averaging around $125,000 per facility this coming year, according to government estimates.”…NE News Now

“Nearly half of U.S. companies are reluctant to hire full-time employees because of the ACA. One in five firms indicates they are likely to hire fewer employees, and another one in 10 may lay off current employees in response to the law.

Other firms will shift toward part-time workers. More than 40 percent of CFOs say their companies will consider switching some jobs to less than 30 hours per week or targeting part-time workers for future employment.”…Duke University Fuqua School of Business December 11, 2013

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

 

 

The media has done a stellar job of focusing on signups for Obamacare and how this has improved. What they have, obviously intentionally, not done is focus on the worsening impact of Obamacare on all Americans and the economy.

Citizen Wells has revealed the impact of premium and deductible increases and the job losses and part time jobs trends.

We have also explained the impact of cost increases and taxes on companies. These costs are often passed on to consumers.

The impact of Obamacare is much more far reaching.

From The Foundry April 11, 2014.

“Talking about Obamacare’s effects is one thing; seeing hard data is another.

Heritage’s newly updated Obamacare in Pictures has 15 charts that show the law’s effects on Americans—from canceled insurance policies to new taxes, Medicare cuts, reduced choice for plans, and more.

Here’s a quick look at just three of these charts and how Obamacare is hitting three groups.

YOUNG PEOPLE

Obamacare in Pictures 2014: Premiums Age 27

Obamacare says you can stay on your parents’ health insurance until you turn 26. This chart looks at what happens after that—if you don’t have employer-sponsored insurance and you have to get insured through Obamacare. If you’re trying to save for a car or house—or just paying rent to have your own place—seeing your premiums double is quite a blow.

SENIORS

Obamacare in Pictures 2014: Medicare cuts

You may recall Heritage experts’ warning that Obamacare would cut $716 billion from Medicare. That’s still happening.

Despite the Obama administration’s recent walking back of Medicare Advantage cuts for this year, Obamacare’s planned cuts to Medicare are moving forward. This chart shows which parts of Medicare are affected.”

Read more:

http://blog.heritage.org/2014/04/11/obamacare-charts-obama-doesnt-want-see/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social

Obamacare will require employers to make changes to their health care plans

Created on April 9, 2014

Obamacare will require employers to make changes to their health care plans

 

Thanks to commenter bob strauss.

Obama Yellen Perez Big Brother, Distortions and lies aboout economy and jobs, Orwellian employment spin, Jobs added jobs lost, Labor force plummets, Obamacare and Obama economy cause part time jobs

Obama Yellen Perez Big Brother, Distortions and lies aboout economy and jobs, Orwellian employment spin, Jobs added jobs lost, Labor force plummets, Obamacare and Obama economy cause part time jobs

“Over the last six months, of the net job creation, 97 percent of that is part-time work,”…Keith Hall, former BLS chief

“Nearly half of U.S. companies are reluctant to hire full-time employees because of the ACA. One in five firms indicates they are likely to hire fewer employees, and another one in 10 may lay off current employees in response to the law.

Other firms will shift toward part-time workers. More than 40 percent of CFOs say their companies will consider switching some jobs to less than 30 hours per week or targeting part-time workers for future employment.”…Duke University Fuqua School of Business December 11, 2013

“The Times of the nineteenth of December had published the official forecasts of the output of various classes of consumption goods in the fourth quarter of 1983, which was also the sixth quarter of the Ninth Three-Year Plan. Today’s issue contained a statement of the actual output, from which it appeared that the forecasts were in every instance grossly wrong. Winston’s job was to rectify the original figures by making them agree with the later ones. As for the third message, it referred to a very simple error which could be set right in a couple of minutes. As short a time ago as February, the Ministry of Plenty had issued a promise (a ‘categorical pledge’ were the official words) that there would be no reduction of the chocolate ration during 1984. Actually, as Winston was aware, the chocolate ration was to be reduced from thirty grammes to twenty at the end of the present week. All that was needed was to substitute for the original promise a warning that it would probably be necessary to reduce the ration at some time in April.”…George Orwell, “1984”

 

 
Of course jobs have been added over the past 5 years. Jobs have also been lost. The big story is the record drop in the labor force participation rate and the increase in part time jobs due to Obamacare and the Obama economy.

Obama, Janet Yellen and Labor Secretary Perez have used the best Orwellian linguistics to portray a dismal jobs situation as rosy.

Janet Yellen gave a speech yesterday.

Yellen talks out of both sides of her mouth.

From the transcript.

“Nearly five years into the expansion that began after the financial crisis and the Great Recession, the recovery has come a long way. More than 8 million jobs have been added to nonfarm payrolls since 2009, almost the same number lost as a result of the recession.”

“It is a sign of how far the economy has come that a return to full employment is, for the first time since the crisis, in the medium-term outlooks of many forecasters. It is a reminder of how far we have to go, however, that this long-awaited outcome is projected to be more than two years away.”

“The continued improvement in labor market conditions has been important in this judgment. The unemployment rate, at 6.7 percent, has fallen three-tenths of 1 percentage point since late last year. Broader measures of unemployment that include workers marginally attached to the labor force and those working part time for economic reasons have fallen a bit more than the headline unemployment rate, and labor force participation, which had been falling, has ticked up this year.”

“In sum, the central tendency of FOMC participant projections for the unemployment rate at the end of 2016 is 5.2 to 5.6 percent, and for inflation the central tendency is 1.7 to 2 percent. If this forecast was to become reality, the economy would be approaching what my colleagues and I view as maximum employment and price stability for the first time in nearly a decade. I find this baseline outlook quite plausible.”

“Other data suggest that there may be more slack in labor markets than indicated by the unemployment rate. For example, the share of the workforce that is working part time but would prefer to work full time remains quite high by historical standards. Similarly, while the share of workers in the labor force who are unemployed and have been looking for work for more than six months has fallen from its peak in 2010, it remains as high as any time prior to the Great Recession. There is ongoing debate about why long-term unemployment remains so high and the degree to which it might decline in a more robust economy. As I argued more fully in a recent speech, I believe that long-term unemployment might fall appreciably if economic conditions were stronger.

The low level of labor force participation may also signal additional slack that is not reflected in the headline unemployment rate. Participation would be expected to fall because of the aging of the population, but the decline steepened in the recovery. Although economists differ over what share of those currently outside the labor market might join or rejoin the labor force in a stronger economy, my own view is that some portion of the decline in participation likely represents labor market slack.”

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/text-of-janet-yellens-speech-2014-04-16?link=MW_latest_news

How about this gem.

“I believe that long-term unemployment might fall appreciably if economic conditions were stronger.”

Ya think?
Classic Obama lies from a speech yesterday in Oakdale, Pennsylvania.

“Now, we’ve spent the past five and a half years fighting back from the worst economic crisis in our lifetimes. The good news is our economy is growing again, our businesses are creating jobs. We’ve created nearly 9 million jobs over the past four years. We’ve cut our deficits by more than half. Our manufacturing sector that used to be losing jobs, just hemorrhaging jobs, is now adding jobs for the first time since the 1990s. (Applause.) The first time since the 1990s. High school dropout rates are going down. College attendance rates and graduation rates are going up. Our troops are coming home. (Applause.) We’re seeing an energy boom all across the country. And more than 7.5 million people have been able to sign up for health care, many for the very first time, through the Affordable Care Act. (Applause.) And 7.5 million people, by the way, is about the number that it would take to fill up Heinz Field 115 times.”

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/04/16/remarks-president-and-vice-president-skills-training

From Citizen Wells April 7, 2014.

 

“The US Labor Dept. reported the March employment data on Friday April 4, 2014.

US Secretary of Labor Thomas E. Perez issued the following statement:

“Today’s report tells the story of a solid and steady economic recovery delivering more opportunity for more people. We saw 192,000 new jobs in the month of March, and the private sector has now created 8.9 million jobs over the last 49 consecutive months of employment growth. The unemployment rate held steady at 6.7 percent and is down from 7.5 percent a year ago.
“There is encouraging news across sectors. Health-care employment increased by 19,000 jobs. The average work week in manufacturing rebounded to 42.0 hours, tied for the highest mark since July 1945. Motor vehicle sales had their strongest month in seven years. At the height of the recession, there were six job seekers for every job available. Today, it’s two-and-a-half people competing for every open job.
“Without question, there is more still to do. On issues from infrastructure to immigration reform, from manufacturing to the minimum wage, there are steps Congress can take that will help more people punch their ticket to the middle class.
“For the 57th straight month (since the middle of 2009), at least one-third of jobless Americans have been unemployed for more than 27 weeks. So, priority number one must be for the House and Senate to extend emergency unemployment benefits that they irresponsibly allowed to expire more than three months ago, creating profound hardship for 2.3 million people. These benefits are a critical lifeline for job seekers struggling to get back on their feet; but they also act as a broader economic stimulus, putting money in people’s pockets and spurring consumer demand.
“The success of the Affordable Care Act is helping working families enjoy greater economic security, the peace of mind of knowing they won’t be wiped out by an injury or illness. The open enrollment period ended with 7.1 million people signing up for health coverage they didn’t have before. The ACA will help provide a shot in the arm to the economy, as people are free to start their own businesses and pursue entrepreneurial ventures now that their health insurance is no longer tied to their job.”

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/opa/opa20140572.htm

The “1984″ analogy is obvious.

As most of you know, Obamacare is costing millions of Americans far more in healthcare premiums.

Despite the best linguistic efforts of Secretary Perez to put a positive spin on the impact of Obamacare, it is also impacting jobs.

From the Duke University Fuqua School of Business, December 11, 2013.

“——————————————-
DUKE UNIVERSITY NEWS
Duke University Office of News & Communications

http://www.dukenews.duke.edu

——————————————-

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Wednesday, Dec. 11, 2013
CONTACTS: Kevin Anselmo (Duke’s Fuqua School of Business)
(919) 660-7722
kevin.anselmo@duke.edu
or
David W. Owens (CFO Magazine)
(617) 790-3000
davidowens@cfo.com

CFO SURVEY: AFFORDABLE CARE ACT COULD CURTAIL HIRING

Note to editors: For additional comment, see contact information at the end of this release.
Watch professor John Graham discuss the results (or use this link
http://youtu.be/F4oj8d5F9Jo). You may also post this video on your website. Names of CFOs who took part in the survey and agreed to speak with media are available by request.

DURHAM, N.C. — A significant percentage of U.S. chief financial officers indicate that because of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), they may reduce employment growth at their firms and shift toward part-time workers.

A majority of finance chiefs also believe the full Social Security retirement age should be raised to help close the budget shortfall.

Despite these issues, underlying economic conditions are expected to improve in 2014 and, except in Europe, corporate charitable giving remains strong

These are some of the findings from the latest Duke University/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey, which concluded Dec. 5. The survey has been conducted for 71 consecutive quarters and spans the globe, making it the world’s longest running and most comprehensive research on senior finance executives. Presented results are for U.S. firms unless otherwise noted.

EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS OF THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT

Nearly half of U.S. companies are reluctant to hire full-time employees because of the ACA.
One in five firms indicates they are likely to hire fewer employees, and another one in 10 may lay off current employees in response to the law.

Other firms will shift toward part-time workers. More than 40 percent of CFOs say their companies will consider switching some jobs to less than 30 hours per week or targeting part-time workers for future employment.”

Read more:

http://www.cfosurvey.org/14q1/PressRelease.pdf

From data provided by the US Labor Dept. we learn:

The Labor Force Participation Rate has dropped 2.5 percent since Obama took office in January 2009 and actually has dropped .1 percent the past year.

The number of people who could only find part time work has risen 1,055,000 since Obama took office and has risen 146,000 in the past year.

The only statement from Secretary Perez that reflects reality is:

“For the 57th straight month (since the middle of 2009), at least one-third of jobless Americans have been unemployed for more than 27 weeks.””

http://citizenwells.wordpress.com/2014/04/07/labor-secretary-perez-on-march-employment-numbers-fact-vs-fiction-solid-and-steady-economic-recovery-obamacare-helping-working-families-enjoy-greater-economic-security/

 

Obamacare and Obama economy kill NC medical jobs, Wake Forest Baptist Hospital likely will cut more than 1000 jobs, 950 jobs already cut, Small and medium sized hospitals hit hardest

Obamacare and Obama economy kill NC medical jobs, Wake Forest Baptist Hospital likely will cut more than 1000 jobs, 950 jobs already cut, Small and medium sized hospitals hit hardest

“If you like your health care plan, you can keep your health care plan.”…Barack Obama

“If you’ve got health insurance we’re going to work with you to lower your premiums by $2,500 per family per year. We will not wait 20 years from now to do it, or 10 years from now to do it. We will do it by the end of my first term as president.”…Barack Obama

“About two-thirds of the hospitals serving Medicare patients, or some 2,200 facilities, will be hit with penalties averaging around $125,000 per facility this coming year, according to government estimates.”…NE News Now

 

 

We warned you.

From the Greensboro News Record April 13, 2014.

“Another round of major expense reductions — including job cuts — are coming at Wake Forest Baptist Medical Center, with management’s plans being announced potentially as early as this week, according to sources.

Multiple employees, who are not being identified because they fear losing their jobs, have told the Winston-Salem Journal they understand that several hundred to more than 1,000 job positions could be eliminated, with the process already started in some departments.

People with knowledge of the situation say Wake Forest Baptist’s board of directors could be projecting up to an 8 percent reduction in operating expenses in fiscal 2014-15, which begins July 1. The sources say the board is contemplating a similar step in expense reduction for fiscal 2015-16.

The center reported to bond holders and rating agencies on Feb. 28 that it had $983.9 million in operating expenses through the first half of fiscal 2013-14. If it were to have $2 billion in operating expenses for the full fiscal year, an 8 percent reduction could represent about $160 million.

Operating revenue for the first half was up 4.5 percent to $960.4 million.

The center has about 13,000 full- and part-time employees, making it Forsyth County’s largest workforce. At least 950 job positions have been eliminated since a “re-engineering” initiative began in April 2012 that was projected to reduce expenses by several hundred million dollars.

When asked about another round of cost cutting, the center issued a statement Friday that said “the medical center is deeply engaged in its annual budgeting process and is continuing to proactively address the challenge of declining reimbursement for health care services. Since we are still in the planning cycle, it would be premature to comment further at this time.”

One source said that the board and Dr. John McCon nell, the center’s chief executive, are “rethinking the size of the expense base” and that the cuts “are not a one-time measure, although the hope is that through the reductions, the expense situation will improve. There is a need to expand the overall clinical platform to raise revenue.””

“The enhancements are similar to those of other academic medical centers and health systems in response to changes in federal health reimbursement formulas, higher mandated requirements for quality and infrastructure, new models of care delivery that are focused on value, and declines in federal funding for research and discovery.”

Read more:

http://m.news-record.com/news/article_fb40f586-c2c2-11e3-8af3-001a4bcf6878.html?mode=jqm

Also from above:

“Other industrywide challenges include more people without health insurance seeking medical help in its emergency department, which tends to increase the amount that hospitals are writing off as bad debt.”

More people without health insurance ???

From Citizen Wells November 15, 2012.

“Update: Wake Forest Baptist Medical Center to cut 950 job”

“Wake Forest Baptist Medical Center will lay off 76 employees this week and cut a total of 950 jobs by the end of next June, the center’s chief executive said today.

Dr. John McConnell said most of the cuts are administrative positions, but some faculty members could lose their jobs due to cuts in federal research funding. He also said 2012-13 revenue is being affected by “deep cuts in Medicare and Medicaid payments, which constitute nearly half of our health-care reimbursements.”

In a statement, the center said the cuts were being made “after a long and careful review of current staffing levels across the organization.”

The center said its restructuring is “designed to position the institution for success aligned with the challenges of health-care reform, federal budget deficits and a decline in research funding from The National Institutes of Health and private industry.”

https://citizenwells.wordpress.com/tag/nc-wake-forest-baptist-medical-center-to-cut-950-jobs/

From Citizen Wells November 25, 2012.

“That’s a delicate balance, said Mark Graban, a national expert and consultant on health care management who lives in San Antonio, Texas.

“It’s easy to add up the cost savings of reduced payroll,” he said. “But it’s hard to add up the side effect of those layoffs.”

He said layoffs are sweeping the industry. Graban referred to a report from the American Hospital Association that says hospitals will cut 93,000 jobs during 2013.

Wake Forest and other major hospitals across the nation pledge that nurse-to-patient ratios won’t change despite the job cuts. Graban said that simple pledge may only mask lingering problems that hurt the quality of patient care.

Nurses and other professional staff, for example, see the headlines, see friends who may be laid off and work in fear, he said.

“A lot of times, quality and good patient outcomes are a result of nurses and other staff going above and beyond,” Graban said. “My concern would be not that the professionals are going to get lazy, but are they going to continue to be motivated to go above and beyond?””

“The coming changes could cost North Carolina’s hospitals up to $7.5 billion over the next 10 years , Dalton said.”

http://citizenwells.wordpress.com/2012/11/25/obamacare-forces-93000-hospital-job-cuts-in-2013-nc-hospitals-costs-up-7-5-billion-the-next-10-years-medicare-and-medicaid-reimbursements-mass-layoffs/

 

 

Greensboro Guilford County NC jobless rates drop, April 10, 2014, Fewer people working and jobs lost, Greensboro News Record accurate report, Labor force has plummeted in NC

Greensboro Guilford County NC jobless rates drop, April 10, 2014, Fewer people working and jobs lost, Greensboro News Record accurate report, Labor force has plummeted in NC

“11.4%: What the U.S. unemployment rate would be if labor force participation were back to January 2008 levels.” …James Pethokoukis, American Enterprise Institute, June 2013

“Nearly half of U.S. companies are reluctant to hire full-time employees because of the ACA. One in five firms indicates they are likely to hire fewer employees, and another one in 10 may lay off current employees in response to the law.

Other firms will shift toward part-time workers. More than 40 percent of CFOs say their companies will consider switching some jobs to less than 30 hours per week or targeting part-time workers for future employment.”…Duke University Fuqua School of Business December 11, 2013

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

 

 

I applaud the Greensboro News Record for this accurate jobs report April 10, 2014.
“Jobless rate falls again in Guilford, but what does it mean?”

“Greensboro’s unemployment rate keeps dropping, but that may not mean that more people are working.

Since February 2013, this region’s unemployment rate has dropped from 9.9 percent to 6.9 percent this February, according to statistics released Wednesday by the N.C. Department of Commerce. The numbers are not adjusted for seasonal variations in hiring patterns.

But the employment pie is shrinking, so the number doesn’t necessarily mean more people have landed jobs.

And because the state surveys employment in a variety of ways, one measurement is up, and one is down, sending mixed messages.

A simple count shows that 1,970 more people say they’re working, compared with February a year ago, but the Greensboro-High Point labor force, defined as people who are employed or unemployed and actively seeking work, has dropped from 370,500 in February 2013 to 360,500 this past February.

That suggests that many people simply have stopped looking for work, local economists have said in recent months.

Perhaps the best measure of jobs, UNCG economist Andrew Brod said, is the survey of establishments that asks how many workers they employ.

Wednesday’s establishment survey shows that the Greensboro-High Point metro area lost 800 jobs between February 2013 and February 2014.”

Read more:

http://m.news-record.com/business/article_3f1582e4-bff4-11e3-8341-0017a43b2370.html?mode=jqm

From Citizen Wells March 29, 2014.

“We have the Obama administration touting job creation.

Governor Pat McCrory of NC is pleased with the improvement in the jobs situation.

The truth has stayed mostly hidden or under reported.

To fix a problem it is important to:
A) Acknowledgement the problem.
B) Understand the problem.

It appears that neither A or B is the case.

The Labor Force Participation Rate in NC has dropped 4 percent since Obama took office in January 2009 and 1.7 percent since Pat McCrory took office in January 2013.

The real unemployent rate in the US and NC?

Well over 10 percent.”

http://citizenwells.wordpress.com/2014/03/29/nc-unemployment-rate-drops-while-labor-force-plummets-participation-rate-drops-4-since-obama-took-office-1-7-since-mccrory-took-office-nc-losing-jobs-and-workers/

God only knows the impact of part time jobs on NC employment and the economy.

 

 

Labor Secretary Perez on March employment numbers, Fact vs fiction, Solid and steady economic recovery?, Obamacare helping working families enjoy greater economic security?

Labor Secretary Perez on March employment numbers, Fact vs fiction, Solid and steady economic recovery?, Obamacare helping working families enjoy greater economic security?

“Over the last six months, of the net job creation, 97 percent of that is part-time work,”…Keith Hall, former BLS chief

“Nearly half of U.S. companies are reluctant to hire full-time employees because of the ACA. One in five firms indicates they are likely to hire fewer employees, and another one in 10 may lay off current employees in response to the law.

Other firms will shift toward part-time workers. More than 40 percent of CFOs say their companies will consider switching some jobs to less than 30 hours per week or targeting part-time workers for future employment.”…Duke University Fuqua School of Business December 11, 2013

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

 

 

The US Labor Dept. reported the March employment data on Friday April 4, 2014.

US Secretary of Labor Thomas E. Perez issued the following statement:

“Today’s report tells the story of a solid and steady economic recovery delivering more opportunity for more people. We saw 192,000 new jobs in the month of March, and the private sector has now created 8.9 million jobs over the last 49 consecutive months of employment growth. The unemployment rate held steady at 6.7 percent and is down from 7.5 percent a year ago.
“There is encouraging news across sectors. Health-care employment increased by 19,000 jobs. The average work week in manufacturing rebounded to 42.0 hours, tied for the highest mark since July 1945. Motor vehicle sales had their strongest month in seven years. At the height of the recession, there were six job seekers for every job available. Today, it’s two-and-a-half people competing for every open job.
“Without question, there is more still to do. On issues from infrastructure to immigration reform, from manufacturing to the minimum wage, there are steps Congress can take that will help more people punch their ticket to the middle class.
“For the 57th straight month (since the middle of 2009), at least one-third of jobless Americans have been unemployed for more than 27 weeks. So, priority number one must be for the House and Senate to extend emergency unemployment benefits that they irresponsibly allowed to expire more than three months ago, creating profound hardship for 2.3 million people. These benefits are a critical lifeline for job seekers struggling to get back on their feet; but they also act as a broader economic stimulus, putting money in people’s pockets and spurring consumer demand.
“The success of the Affordable Care Act is helping working families enjoy greater economic security, the peace of mind of knowing they won’t be wiped out by an injury or illness. The open enrollment period ended with 7.1 million people signing up for health coverage they didn’t have before. The ACA will help provide a shot in the arm to the economy, as people are free to start their own businesses and pursue entrepreneurial ventures now that their health insurance is no longer tied to their job.”

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/opa/opa20140572.htm

The “1984” analogy is obvious.

As most of you know, Obamacare is costing millions of Americans far more in healthcare premiums.

Despite the best linguistic efforts of Secretary Perez to put a positive spin on the impact of Obamacare, it is also impacting jobs.

From the Duke University Fuqua School of Business, December 11, 2013.

“——————————————-
DUKE UNIVERSITY NEWS
Duke University Office of News & Communications

http://www.dukenews.duke.edu

——————————————-

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Wednesday, Dec. 11, 2013
CONTACTS: Kevin Anselmo (Duke’s Fuqua School of Business)
(919) 660-7722
kevin.anselmo@duke.edu
or
David W. Owens (CFO Magazine)
(617) 790-3000
davidowens@cfo.com

CFO SURVEY: AFFORDABLE CARE ACT COULD CURTAIL HIRING

Note to editors: For additional comment, see contact information at the end of this release.
Watch professor John Graham discuss the results (or use this link
http://youtu.be/F4oj8d5F9Jo). You may also post this video on your website. Names of CFOs who took part in the survey and agreed to speak with media are available by request.

DURHAM, N.C. — A significant percentage of U.S. chief financial officers indicate that because of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), they may reduce employment growth at their firms and shift toward part-time workers.

A majority of finance chiefs also believe the full Social Security retirement age should be raised to help close the budget shortfall.

Despite these issues, underlying economic conditions are expected to improve in 2014 and, except in Europe, corporate charitable giving remains strong

These are some of the findings from the latest Duke University/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey, which concluded Dec. 5. The survey has been conducted for 71 consecutive quarters and spans the globe, making it the world’s longest running and most comprehensive research on senior finance executives. Presented results are for U.S. firms unless otherwise noted.

EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS OF THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT

Nearly half of U.S. companies are reluctant to hire full-time employees because of the ACA.
One in five firms indicates they are likely to hire fewer employees, and another one in 10 may lay off current employees in response to the law.

Other firms will shift toward part-time workers. More than 40 percent of CFOs say their companies will consider switching some jobs to less than 30 hours per week or targeting part-time workers for future employment.”

Read more:

http://www.cfosurvey.org/14q1/PressRelease.pdf

From data provided by the US Labor Dept. we learn:

The Labor Force Participation Rate has dropped 2.5 percent since Obama took office in January 2009 and actually has dropped .1 percent the past year.

The number of people who could only find part time work has risen 1,055,000 since Obama took office and has risen 146,000 in the past year.

The only statement from Secretary Perez that reflects reality is:

“For the 57th straight month (since the middle of 2009), at least one-third of jobless Americans have been unemployed for more than 27 weeks.”

 

Corporate profits and financial markets soar with diminished labor force, The market is not the economy but food stamp recipients part time workers and labor force dropouts are minimal consumers

Corporate profits and financial markets soar with diminished labor force, The market is not the economy but food stamp recipients part time workers and labor force dropouts are minimal consumers

“The Congressional Budget Office recently warned that Obamacare would “keep hours worked and potential output during the next 10 years lower than they would be otherwise.” That nonpartisan verdict should be bad news for workers.”…Washington Times February 14, 2014

“Nearly half of U.S. companies are reluctant to hire full-time employees because of the ACA. One in five firms indicates they are likely to hire fewer employees, and another one in 10 may lay off current employees in response to the law.

Other firms will shift toward part-time workers. More than 40 percent of CFOs say their companies will consider switching some jobs to less than 30 hours per week or targeting part-time workers for future employment.”…Duke University Fuqua School of Business December 11, 2013

Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

 

 

There is not a one to one correlation between the labor force and economy and financial markets.

However, food stamp recipients, part time workers and labor force dropouts are minimal consumers.

There will come a day of reckoning and recent Walmart quarterly results may be a harbinger of that.

From Zero Hedge March 3, 2014.
“‘The Market Is Not The Economy’ And The Winner-Takes-All Society”

“You hear that old saw that “the market is not the economy,” a lot these days, and for good reason. As ConvergEx’s Nick Colas notes, the S&P 500 breaks to record highs – but U.S. labor markets remain sluggish; investor portfolios do well – but over 47 million Americans (more than 15% of the population) are still in U.S. food stamp program – the same as August 2012. The important question now is: “Is the market TOO different from the economy?””

CorporateProfitsEconomy

 

“Record corporate profits – the reason for all-time highs in U.S. equities – come with little hiring or wage gains. The hottest growth stories are business models with lots of customers but very few employees. The recently purchased WhatsApp – for $19 billion – has 55 employees. Investment payoffs – and increasingly social outcomes as well – are technology-enabled, asymmetric and sporadic. How soon before we reach a tipping point?

Via ConvergEx’s Nick Colas,

Last week the local government of San Francisco announced that Google has promised to give $6.8 million over the next two year to pay for over 31,000 low-income young people to use the city’s mass transit system for free. Mayor Edwin Lee applauded the company for helping ease San Francisco’s “Affordability crisis for lower and middle-income families”. Without Google’s help, the successful pilot program would have run out of money in July of this year.

Google’s initiative seems to be a direct response to numerous local protests over its practice of providing free shuttle busses throughout the city for the sole benefit of its employees. Local and often long-time residents, fed up with cost of living inflation from their new stock-option enriched neighbors, see the busses as a symbol of an out-of-touch elite and the companies they serve. Some of the protests have turned violent. Even Wired magazine, a widely read voice of the merits of technology, sees the problem. In the most recent issue: an editorial entitled “Breaking Point: Silicon Valley Can’t Avoid the Haters”, and a back page questionnaire – “Am I a Silicon Valley Douchbag?”

There’s an old Wall Street aphorism that goes “The market is not the economy”, something akin to “A Google bus is not the San Francisco economy.” In both cases, you’d think there were would some correlation. A hugely profitable Silicon Valley should mean a broadly wealthy and generally content “City by the Bay”. And a rocking stock market should indicate a U.S. economy solidly on the mend after the Financial Crisis and accelerating in 2014. Neither seems to be true.”

Read more:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-03/market-not-economy-and-winner-takes-all-society

 

Orwellian nation of Obamathink, Obama doublespeak, Affordable Care Act means higher premiums, Lower hours worked frees from job lock, Record job market dropouts means lower unemployment

Orwellian nation of Obamathink, Obama doublespeak, Affordable Care Act means higher premiums, Lower hours worked frees from job lock, Record job market dropouts means lower unemployment

 
“Winston dialed “back numbers” on the telescreen and called for the appropriate issues of the Times, which slid out of the pneumatic tube after only a few minutes’ delay. The messages he had received referred to articles or news items
which for one reason or another it was thought necessary to alter, or, as the official phrase had it, to rectify. For example, it appeared from the Times of the seventeenth of March that Big Brother, in his speech of the previous day,
had predicted that the South Indian front would remain quiet but that a Eurasian offensive would shortly be launched in North Africa. As it happened, the Eurasian Higher Command had launched its offensive in South India and left North Africa alone. It was therefore necessary to rewrite a paragraph of Big Brother’s speech in such a way as to make him predict the thing that had actually happened.”…George Orwell, “1984”

“the Times of the nineteenth of December had published the official forecasts of the output of various classes of consumption goods in the fourth quarter of 1983, which was also the sixth quarter of the Ninth Three-Year Plan. Today’s issue contained a statement of the actual output, from which it appeared that the forecasts were in every instance grossly wrong. Winston’s job was to rectify the original figures by making them agree with the later ones.”…George Orwell, “1984”

Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984”

We saw this coming early in 2008 and reported it.

From GOPUSA  February 18, 2014.

“The nightmare societies portrayed in the George Orwell novels “Nineteen Eighty-Four” and “Animal Farm” gave us the word “Orwellian.” That adjective reflects a vast government’s efforts not just to deceive and control the people, but also to do so by reinventing the meaning of ordinary words while rewriting the past itself.

America, of all places, is becoming Orwellian. The president repeatedly reminds the American people that under his leadership, the United States has produced a record level of new oil and natural gas. However, didn’t President Obama radically curtail leases for just such new energy production on federal lands?

Have the edicts on the barn wall of “Animal Farm” been changed again, with the production of new oil and gas going from bad to suddenly good?

Does anyone remember that the “Affordable Care Act” was sold on the premise that it would guarantee retention of existing health plans and doctors, create 4 million new jobs and save families $2,500 a year in premiums, all while extending expanded coverage to more people at a lower cost?

Only in Orwell’s world of doublespeak could raising taxes while the costs of millions of health plans soars be called “affordable.” Is losing your existing plan and doctor a way of retaining them?

The Congressional Budget Office recently warned that Obamacare would “keep hours worked and potential output during the next 10 years lower than they would be otherwise.” That nonpartisan verdict should be bad news for workers.

Not in our brave new world. The Obama administration says it is pleased that workers will now be freed from “job lock.”

What is job lock – a made-up Newspeak word right out “Nineteen Eighty-Four”? Work fewer hours, make less money and create fewer outputs – and be happy.”

“In 2004, many in the media reported that George W. Bush, the demonized Emmanuel Goldstein of our era, had overseen a “jobless recovery.” Unemployment at election time in 2004 was 5.4 percent.

Yet since January 2009, only two months have seen joblessness dip slightly below 7 percent. A record 90 million able-bodied Americans are not participating in the workforce.

Yet the president, in Orwellian doublespeak fashion, recently claimed that the job picture is good. If 5.4 percent unemployment was once called a jobless recovery, are we now in a jobless recovery from a jobless recovery?”

Read more:

http://www.gopusa.com/freshink/2014/02/18/an-orwellian-nation-of-obamathink/

Labor force participation rate at 35 year low, State by state, 55 and over record high, WV lowest P2P rate Washington DC highest, CA NV highest underemployment rates

Labor force participation rate at 35 year low, State by state, 55 and over record high, WV lowest P2P rate Washington DC highest, CA NV highest underemployment rates

“11.4%: What the U.S. unemployment rate would be if labor force participation were back to January 2008 levels.” …James Pethokoukis, American Enterprise Institute, June 2013

“Nearly half of U.S. companies are reluctant to hire full-time employees because of the ACA. One in five firms indicates they are likely to hire fewer employees, and another one in 10 may lay off current employees in response to the law.

Other firms will shift toward part-time workers. More than 40 percent of CFOs say their companies will consider switching some jobs to less than 30 hours per week or targeting part-time workers for future employment.”…Duke University Fuqua School of Business December 11, 2013

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

 

 

Another excellent report from Zero Hedge on the US employment situation February 14, 2014.

“The US Participation Rate Is At A 35 Year Low: This Is How It Looks Broken Down State By State”

After years of being roundly ignored by the mainstream media, and certainly be self-important economists, the issue of labor force participation is suddenly up front and center, especially now that the Fed itself finds itself scrambling to explain the humiliation of hitting its 6.5% unemployment “forward guidance” threshold without proceeding to tighten as it said it would initially when it launched QEternity in December 2012.

Incidentally, we predicted precisely this when we said in December 2012 that “using a simple forecast, based on LTM trends across all key employment metrics reveals something very troubling, for the Fed and stocks that is: the 6.5% unemployment rate will be breached in July 2013! Now granted that is simply idiotic, and there is no way that the US economy could possibly recover that fast, but that is precisely what is implied based on the ongoing collapse in the Labor Force Participation, and the concurrent plunge in the Labor Force Participation rate,which has been the biggest marginal driver for the unemployment rate, far more than the number of people who have jobs, or are unemployed (readers can recreate our calculation on their own in 10 minutes with excel).”

Granted, we were off by six months, but we were spot on about the reason why the unemployment threshold number was hit so quickly, instead of as the Fed has originally predicted, some time in 2015/2016.

So now that absolutely everyone is laser-focused more on the participation print, recently at 35 year lows, than the actual unemployment number which even the Fed has implied is meaningless in the current context, one thing to note is that while the overall number is a blended average across the US, it certainly differs on a state by state basis.

In order to get a sense of which states are the winners and losers in the payroll to participation ratio,we go to Gallup, which conveniently has broken down this number on a far more granular basis.

Gallup finds that Washington, D.C., had the highest Payroll to Population (P2P) rate in the country in 2013, at 55.7%. A cluster of states in the Northern Great Plains and Rocky Mountain regions — North Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wyoming, Iowa, Colorado, and South Dakota — all made the top 10. West Virginia (36.1%) had the lowest P2P rate of all the states.

“Of course, this now defunct demographic explanation does not account for the fact that within the US labor force, the number of people employed aged 55 and over has just hit a record high, as it defeats the demographic explanation. So while one should ignore the rationalization, one should certainly be aware of which states skew the participation distribution on the high and low side.”

“And guess which states were by far the worst offenders when it comes underemployment:

California and Nevada have the highest percentages of their workforces not working at desired capacity. Their rates are about twice those of states at the other end of the spectrum, such as North Dakota (10.1%). Other states hard hit by the recession and declining housing market, including Florida and Arizona, rank among the states with the highest underemployment rates.”

Read more:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-14/us-participation-rate-35-year-low-how-it-looks-state-state

 

CBO Obamacare will add to deficit, 2 million fewer full time jobs, Combined deficit just under $1.2 trillion, Creates reluctant work force, No compelling evidence companies increasing part time employment???

CBO Obamacare will add to deficit, 2 million fewer full time jobs, Combined deficit just under $1.2 trillion, Creates reluctant work force, No compelling evidence companies increasing part time employment??

“11.4%: What the U.S. unemployment rate would be if labor force participation were back to January 2008 levels.” …James Pethokoukis, American Enterprise Institute, June 2013

“Over the last six months, of the net job creation, 97 percent of that is part-time work,”…Keith Hall, former BLS chief

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

 

 

From Market Watch February 4, 2014.

“CBO says Obamacare will add to deficit, create reluctant work force”
“The number of people receiving health coverage through public exchanges under President Obama’s health-care overhaul will total roughly 25 million by 2018, will add more than $1 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade and could very well create a small contingent of workers unwilling to work for fear of losing federal medical aid.

Those are the findings from a Congressional Budget Office report released Tuesday, which also said the number of those receiving subsidies through exchanges will total 20 million in that time.

The report is sure to give ammunition to Republicans and other foes of the Affordable Care Act, who have repeatedly warned of Obamacare’s shortcomings and are trying to repeal it. It also creates a major issue for the president, who has repeatedly said the ACA will be revenue neutral. Instead, the CBO projects that it will account for increasing chunks of deficit spending, starting at $20 billion this year and steadily increasing to $159 billion in 2024, for a collective deficit of just under $1.2 trillion.

Not only does the report on the federal budget take an in-depth look at the ACA and its effects on the budget, but also on the work force in general. Most of these effects won’t hit until after the next few years, once Obamacare has had a chance to gain momentum and get going.

One of the CBO’s most intriguing estimates is that by 2017 there will be 2 million fewer full-time jobs on the market than there would have been without Obamacare, and that figure could climb to 2.5 million by 2024.”

“The CBO says it has seen “no compelling evidence” that companies are increasing part-time employment in order to avoid facing mandatory coverage of employees.”

Read more:

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/health-exchange/2014/02/04/cbo-says-obamacare-will-add-to-deficit-create-reluctant-work-force/?mod=MW_home_latest_news

CBO report.

http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/45010-Outlook2014.pdf

“The CBO says it has seen “no compelling evidence” that companies are increasing part-time employment in order to avoid facing mandatory coverage of employees.”

Really!

“Nearly half of U.S. companies are reluctant to hire full-time employees because of the ACA. One in five firms indicates they are likely to hire fewer employees, and another one in 10 may lay off current employees in response to the law.

Other firms will shift toward part-time workers. More than 40 percent of CFOs say their companies will consider switching some jobs to less than 30 hours per week or targeting part-time workers for future employment.”…Duke University Fuqua School of Business December 11, 2013