Unemployment May 4, 2012, Unemployment claims revised upward, 4 week moving average 383500, April private sector jobs plummeted, Real unemployment rate?
“Guilford (Large NC County) appears on it’s way to a third consecutive year with annual jobless rates in double digits. Economists say that likely hasn’t happened since the Great Depression.”…Greensboro News Record December 2, 2011
“the Times of the nineteenth of December had published the official forecasts of the output of various classes of consumption goods in the fourth quarter of 1983, which was also the sixth quarter of the Ninth Three-Year Plan. Today’s issue contained a statement of the actual output, from which it appeared that the forecasts were in every instance grossly wrong. Winston’s job was to rectify the original figures by making them agree with the later ones.”…George Orwell, “1984″
“And if all others accepted the lie which the Party imposed
–if all records told the same tale–then the lie passed into
history and became truth. “Who controls the past,” ran the
Party slogan, “controls the future: who controls the present
controls the past.”…George Orwell, “1984″
The stated unemployment rate is 8.1%.
What is the real unemployment rate?
Further analysis of this is forthcoming.
Here is what we know:
Unemployment claims get reported and then revised upward. The recent report was changed to 392,000 from the prior week’s reported 388,000.
The 4 week moving average has gone up the past several weeks. It is now 383,500.
Private sector employment increased by 119,000 jobs in April instead of the forecasted 170,000.
Many individuals, discouraged by the dismal jobs picture, have left the job market.
What ever the stated unemployment rate is, the real unemployment rate is significantly higher.
High school and college graduates, about to enter the full time job market, face dismal prospects. Though they have been counted by the Labor Department (I just verified this), they will still add millions to those seeking full time employment.
“Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his fellow policymakers at the central bank have expressed worry that the employment picture ahead is likely to be weak”…CNBC May 2, 2012.
Rush Limbaugh continues to state that the unemployment rate will be manipulated to benefit Obama. Anything over 8 % is considered lethal to his reelection.