NC unemployment worse than reported, Over 10 percent, North carolina fourth highest, Economy worse than first thought, Truth Team notification
“Guilford (Large NC County) appears on it’s way to a third consecutive year with annual jobless rates in double digits. Economists say that likely hasn’t happened since the Great Depression.”…Greensboro News Record December 2, 2011
“And if all others accepted the lie which the Party imposed–if all records told the same tale–then the lie passed into history and became truth. “Who controls the past,” ran the Party slogan, “controls the future: who controls the present controls the past.”…George Orwell, “1984″
“And you shall know the truth, and the truth shall set you free.”…Jesus, John 8:32
We told you so.
Citizen Wells, Rush Limbaugh and others criticized the stated unemployment rate from the past several months. I knew from my math background and cursory examination of the data that the reported rates were wrong and the economy much worse.
However, I am confident that the Truth Team is on top of this. As part of my efforts to work with the Truth Team to make certain that the candidates quote the correct numbers, I gave them a heads up several weeks ago.
From Citizen Wells February 16, 2012.
“NC Truth Team, Citizen Wells provides facts for Obama Truth Team and Republicans, North Carolina jobs unemployment hardships, No more lies”
““While the job market showed signs of growth last year, both Guilford and the state ended 2011 with more people unemployed than was the case the previous
In Guilford , nearly 24,500 didn’t have jobs; statewide, the number surpassed 446,000.
And both the county and the state ended the year with jobless rates of 9.9 percent. That’s equal to or higher than the rates a year earlier.”
“At the current rate of growth–adding 8,300 annually–it will take 3.5 years–or until 2016–to regain the positions lost during and after the Great recession.
“Looking ahead, Quinterno said he expects more of the same this year.
“Absent robust job growth, joblessness and associated hardships will remain widespread,” he wrote. “2012 could well be the fifth consecutive year of negative or minimal job growth in North Carolina.””
“The employment picture is much bleaker.”
““The weak job growth recorded during 2011 did little to replace the jobs lost earlier in the business cycle. Since the onset of the “Great Recession,” North Carolina has lost, on net, 295,300 positions, or 7.1 percent of its payroll employment base. The maximum job loss recorded during the business cycle occurred in February 2010, when the state had 323,000 fewer jobs (-7.7 percent) than it did 26 months before. Since that time, North Carolina has netted 27,700 positions (+0.7 percent), for an average monthly gain of nearly 1,300 jobs. While the state’s economy added more jobs in 2011 than in 2010 (+19,600 versus +5,400), the growth was too weak to materially alter the employment situation. Even if the annual level of job growth were to triple, it still would take roughly five years to close the current jobs gap, holding all else equal.”
“Estimates of the underemployment rate, a broader measure of labor under-utilization prepared by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, indicate that 17.9 percent of North Carolina’s adjusted labor force was underemployed, on average, in 2011. That measure includes not only individuals who meet the formal definition of unemployment, but also those working part-time despite preferring full-time work and those marginally attached to the workforce. Over the year, the statewide underemployment rate rose by 0.5 percentage points, rising to 17.9 percent from a level of 17.4 percent in 2010.
Regardless of the exact measure used, a sizable amount of labor in North Carolina is currently sitting idle. Nearly 10 of every 100 members of the state’s labor force are unemployed (seasonally adjusted), while almost 18 of every 100 are underemployed. Moreover, the share of adult North Carolinians with a job has fallen sharply since late 2007. In December 2011, only 55.6 percent of working-age North Carolinians (seasonally adjusted) had jobs, a level no different from the one posted one year prior. This rate actually fell to a low of 55.3 percent near the end of 2011.Q3. At no other time since 1976 has the employment-to-population been as low as it has been in recent months (fig. 7). The current ratio also is well below the historical average rate of 63.6 recorded between January 1976 and December 2007.””
I would like to thank the Greensboro News Record for reporting this today, March 14, 2012.
“Update: N.C. jobless rate still above 10 percent”
“New, more-accurate estimates show North Carolina’s unemployment rate stayed above 10 percent throughout 2011, falling to 10.2 percent in January in a key election battleground state, the state Commerce Department reported today.
North Carolina’s jobless rate was the fourth-highest in the country in January, trailing California, Rhode Island and Nevada, which leads the nation with a 12.7 percent unemployment rate.
The report also pointed to some bright spots amid signs of slow improvement in the national economy. An additional 14,213 people were drawing paychecks in January. An extra 6,245 entered the workforce as previously discouraged or young workers started looking for jobs.
On the downside, nearly 8,000 more people were on unemployment rolls in January than in the previous month.
“These new data say the economy is improving, but it’s also saying the economy is worse than we first thought,” said James Kleckley, director of the Bureau of Business Research at East Carolina University.
The estimates were revised in an annual re-examination of available data coupled with U.S. Census information of people reporting themselves as working or unemployed.
The result was that earlier estimates of North Carolina’s unemployment rate dropping below 10 percent in December were revised upward. The new estimates are that the state’s unemployment rate was 10.4 percent in November and December before falling to 10.2 percent in January. The national average was 8.3 percent in January.
“What everything’s been saying is that North Carolina has been improving but not by leaps and bounds by any means,” Kleckley said. “This will make me have to rethink some of the other data. I didn’t expect it. I expected the unemployment rate to be a little lower.”
North Carolina lost more than 330,000 jobs by the time the national recession bottomed out in February 2010, state data showed Tuesday. Since then, the state has gained back about 80,000 jobs, or about a quarter of the jobs lost, John Connaughton, an economic forecaster at UNC-Charlotte.
In January, North Carolina employers added 17,000 more payroll jobs than they cut.
“We had a big January jump,” said Connaughton, who predicts the state’s businesses to add about 50,000 jobs this year.
“The issue here is I think the economy has turned a corner. 2012 is going to start to feel like a recovery for most people,” he said. “People are going to say, ‘Yep, things are getting better. I’ve got job opportunities. I’ve got options.’ “
Tuesday’s report comes during an election year in which the economy and job prospects are expected to be a huge issue. President Barack Obama is targeting North Carolina as key to his re-election prospects. He narrowly won the state in 2008, reversing a generation of voters picking Republican presidential candidates.
With rising stock markets, increased manufacturing and other indicators pointing to a slowly improving U.S. economy, North Carolina residents have reported increasing optimism. An Elon University poll released last week found about two-thirds of state residents think the economy either will stay the same or get better in the months ahead. More than half of the poll’s respondents said the economy was the most important issue facing the state.
Small-business owners across the country reported increasing optimism for the sixth straight month in February, the National Federation of Independent Business said Tuesday. The hopeful forecast is spreading among North Carolina’s main-street business community, but it’s far too early to celebrate, NFIB state director Gregg Thompson said.
“It looks like things are finally turning around, but unless the pace of recovery picks up, it’ll be years before we’re back where we started,” he said.”